Devise a new governanc plan to deal with the future of the Indus basin

Recently, the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Water Resources recommended that the government should renegotiate the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960, with Pakistan, in view of pressing challenges such as “climate change, global warming and environmental impact assessment”. Without making overtures towards abrogating the treaty, which has often been part of the debate in midst of tensions with Pakistan, the committee, in no uncertain terms, acknowledged the rationality of the framing of IWT “on the basis of knowledge and technology existing at the time”.

IWT, with its emphasis on hydraulic engineering, divided the basin into upper and lower parts (the western and eastern rivers), and envisaged the most complete utilisation of the waters through dams, barrages and canals. Without the treaty, Pakistan would have been constrained to build grand hydraulic works to transfer water from the western rivers to meet its irrigation needs and become independent of the eastern rivers. And without the eastern rivers being given exclusively to India, it would have struggled to operationalise the Bhakra and Nangal dams. The Rajasthan canal would not have made much progress, and the Ravi– Beas link canal would have failed to take off.

However, during the IWT negotiations, there was no unified methodology or specialised institutions to foretell the dangers of the climate crisis on water resources. With the advancement of science and improvement in measurements, snow and glacier melt in the upper Indus hydrology, which contribute to 60-70% of total average flow in the Indus river system, and precipitation patterns are now better understood. The contribution of these sources to the Indus Basin is undergoing considerable variations explained by the weather systems and the monsoon.

As a result, sustainability and future water availability are under existential threat. Rivers are the lifeline of almost 300 million people living in the Indus basin. Issues such as food and energy will increasingly have intricate linkages to water while demographic pressures will impact water management.

But how does one renegotiate IWT when

“Future Co-operation” under Article V IWT appreciates that in search of a “com interest in the optimum development o Rivers” both the parties can “declare t intention to co-operate, by mutual agreem to the fullest possible extent.” The emph of cooperation is on setting up new mete logical observation stations, supply of d and new engineering works on the riv However, Article XII explicitly mentions IWT “may from time to time be modified duly ratified treaty concluded for the pur between the two Governments”. Technically, any cooperation or modifica of the treaty cannot be undert unilaterally. Even if India show political courage to renegotiate I the dynamics of it will be far m exacting. Pakistan, in all likelih will make it a political and territ issue, expressing its disappoint over the treaty rather than the m rial benefits it has accrued. Paki has never advocated abrogatio revision of the treaty, but has shied away from blaming India for its w woes. IWT remains a scapegoat to cover u poor water management policies, which, in cessive decades, have seen inefficiency i irrigation system and excessive water was the agricultural sector.

The best option for India is to fulfil the visions of IWT, particularly those on the w ern rivers in Jammu and Kashmir. W signing IWT, India gave preference to fu ing its immediate water needs over fu needs, particularly those of the peopl Jammu and Kashmir. IWT allows sto entitlement of up to 3.6 MAF (millionfeet) on the western rivers. Many of the jects are now underway in achieving the “missible storage capacity”.

The Permanent Indus Commission meets every year to settle differences IWT is an excellent mechanism to raise cerns over water efficiency, ecological in rity and sustainability in the backdrop o climate crisis. A new water governa framework will be required to deal with uncertain future of the Indus basin.