Uzaffarnagar: symbol, a test

E panchayat signals social mobilisation. l it translate into political strength?

On Sunday, farm unions, demanding a repeal of three farm laws, organised a in Muzaffarnagar in west Uttar Pradesh (UP). The choice of location an obvious political subtext. West UP is a nghold of Jats — who have been at the forefront he protests along with predominantly Sikh mers from Punjab. West UP is also the home of esh Tikait, who, after a range of short-term tical dalliances with a range of political mations, has found strength by returning to es concerning agriculture that catapulted his er, Mahendra Singh Tikait, to prominence. The that Muzaffarnagar was the site of communal ence in 2013, which benefited the Bharatiya ata Party (BJP), made it a symbolic site for an ation against the BJP. But above all, it sent a clear al that what began as a social movement, rooted conomic grievances, had now acquired a salient tical character — with the stated aim of defeating BJP in the UP assembly elections of 2022. here is an immediate electoral calculus. For both m unions, and the wider non-bjp Opposition, the vement represents an opportunity to break the ’s social alliance in the state. If Jats break away in t UP, and Jats and Muslims vote for the same mation, it will have a tangible impact in terms of electoral outcome in the region. But it is mature to conclude that this will happen. The ’s ability to win over crucial vote segments in the -up to the elections, particularly in the last few ks before polling, is impressive. In both 2017 and 9, Jats expressed disenchantment with the BJP, eventually a large segment voted for the party. kind of Jat consolidation against the BJP could l lead to a non-jat consolidation in favour of the . The communal divide has not gone away. And movement still does not have a political vehicle r Tikait has a track record of electoral setbacks, have been sceptical of the Samajwadi Party, and Rashtriya Lok Dal remains weak. he Muzaffarnagar also was an attempt eave together an alliance of farmers and anised sector workers and unions, opposed to ves such as the monetisation of public assets and atisation. This suggests the emergence of new tical economy fault lines, but a reminder is in er. Rarely, if ever, have workers and farmers — h heterogeneous categories — successfully come ther against a ruling party at the Centre. zaffarnagar is a symbol, but also a test.