Monsoon rainfall likely to be 103% of LPA, says IMD
NEW DELHI: A day after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) came under a lot of fire over its prediction with regard to the onset of monsoon this year, the weather department on Tuesday clarified that the monsoon rainfall during the next four months (June to September) is likely to be “normal” at 103% of long- period average ( LPA), with a model error of +/-4%.
The IMD made the observations while presenting its second stage long-range forecast (LRF) for monsoon on Tuesday. It had earlier forecast that monsoon rainfall is likely to be 99% of LPA during its first stage LRF, issued in April.
LPA is calculated for the 1971-2020 period, which is 87 mm. Monsoon rainfall in India is likely to be above normal over central India (over 106% of LPA), and southern peninsula (over 106% of LPA). It is likely to be normal over northeast India ( 96- 106% of LPA) and northwest India (96-106% of LPA).
Rainfall for the monsoon core zone, which mainly consists of areas where agriculture is largely dependent on seasonal precipitation, is also likely to be above normal at over 106% of LPA.
RAINFALL DURING JUNE ACROSS THE COUNTRY IS LIKELY TO BE NORMAL (92-108% OF LPA)
“We have increased the quantum of rainfall likely to be received during monsoon months because projections are showing that La Nina conditions will continue till the end of monsoon. La Nina conditions will support normal rains, which may be countered a little due to development of negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions over the Indian
Ocean,” said M Mohapatra, director general of IMD.
Rainfall during June across the country is likely to be normal (92-108% of LPA). Normal to above- normal rainfall is likely over several parts of northwest and central India, the northern peninsula and some parts of the east, and a few pockets of northeast India.
Below normal rainfall is likely over several parts of extreme southern peninsular India and northeast India, and a few parts of northwest, central and east India, the IMD said. The southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on Sunday (May 29), according to IMD.