‘Local versus outsider’ key narrative in Alwar battle
JAIPUR/ALWAR: The narrative for the Alwar seat, going to Lok Sabha elections in the first phase on Friday, is sharply drawn — a battle between “local versus outsider”, say political experts .
The Congress candidate and Alwar- born legislator Lalit Yadav will be squaring off against Union minister Bhupendra Yadav, who hails from Haryana.Going by the electoral history of Alwar, a consistent trend has come to the fore: Yadav candidates emerging victorious on numerous occasions. In this constituency, voting patterns are often driven more by the “personalities of the candidates rather than strict party affiliations”, according to the political experts.The social dynamics further accentuates this phenomenon, with the one-sided voting of the Yadav community holding the power to significantly alter the course of the election.
Political experts believe that in the previous Lok Sabha elections, the competition between
Jitendra Singh of the Congress and Mahant Balaknath of the BJP led to a “unilateral flow” of Yadav votes towards Balaknath’s candidacy. However, the upcoming elections present a unique scenario with both candidates hailing from the Yadav community. In this context, both contenders face a significant challenge in securing the support of their community while also appealing to broader electorate concerns, said a political expert.
While the BJP has secured victory in Alwar twice before, the dynamics have shifted in the current election cycle. “Beyond the traditional Yadav versus Yadav narrative, the discourse has expanded to include discussions on local and national issues” said the expert.
Of the eight assembly seats in Alwar Lok Sabha seat, five are with Congress and three with BJP.According to a local journalist, Bhupendra Yadav has a plus point that “BJP is in a strong position in urban areas”. “He is campaigning on ‘Modi’s guarantee’ and with his known closeness to PM Narendra Modi, everyone from the senior party leader to the smallest worker is engaged with him. However former MP and MLA Balak Nath supporters aren’t happy with their leader not being given any post in the state cabinet, which might work against him,” said the journalist.
The third factor
Despite the direct contest between the BJP and the Congress, the presence of the Bahujan Samaj Party adds a significant third factor to the electoral landscape in the constituency. With a considerable population of Meo Muslims ( an ethnic group from the Mewat region of north-western India) and the SC- ST voters, the political dynamics in the constituency have gotten further complicated.
Traditionally, the Congress has regarded both Meo Muslims and SC-ST voters as its “support base”. However, the candidacy of Fazal Hussain, son of Mev leader Tayyab Hussain, representing the BSP, introduces a new dynamic. Hussain’s strong connection with the Meo voters, coupled with the potential to attract SC-ST votes poses a challenge to the Congress’ hold on these demographics, said another political analyst.
According to the analyst, this factor “could significantly impact the Congress vote bank, as Hussain’s candidacy has the potential to draw support away from the party”. The competition between the BJP, Congress, and BSP will be intense, with each vying for the support of diverse voter segments, said the expert.