UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE SECOND WAVE IS MUCH LOWER, SAYS CEA

NEW DELHI: The second wave of the Covid-19 may be raging across India , and health systems in some of the biggest cities may be at risk of being overwhelmed, but the country’s chief economic advisor (CEA) Krishnamurthy Subramanian said there’s less uncertainty now compared to the first wave because of the ongoing vaccination drive and the technology-aided ability to provide instant relief to the poor.

“I think, overall, compared to the previous episode, we are in a better shape because the vaccine is already out and the vaccination drive is proceeding. So, I think the uncertainty is much lower,” he said in conversation on saving lives and livelihood with Amazon India vice president finance and India CFO Raghava Rao at the Amazon Smbhav 2021 summit.

Referring to the first wave that saw a 68-day hard nationwide lockdown from March 25, 2020, Subramanian said the government’s policy was driven by the oal of saving lives during that difficult time. He was referring to the ₹1.70 lakh crore relief package announced on March 26 last year that involved free rations and cash-in-hand to the poor and vulnerable.

Subramanian said technology helped the government provide quick relief to the poor. “One key thing that has stood out during this entire pandemic is the role of e-commerce and digitisation, something that India has really embraced.”

“I think, the most salient example of this is, if you take the way which essentials were provided to 800 million people in India. We did that through the public distribution system and through the use of Jan DhanAadhaar-mobile,” he explained.

“Let me just contrast this to what the most advanced economy in the world the US did. They had to first physically print out cheques ... mail it through the United States post office ..., a process that took 45 days to two months, which India did at the click of a button,” he added.

Experts, though, aren’t as sanguine and said the second wave is bound to have adverse consequences for the economy as major economic hubs such as Maharashtra are witnessing partial lockdowns.