Case positivity rate in Delhi drops to 4.76%

NEW DELHI: The Covid-19 test positivity rate in the national capital on Friday dropped below 5% for the first time in 45 days, as the number of new infections continued to wind down in a clear sign that Delhi may be heading out of the punishing surge of infections that battered the city’s health care infrastructure, and left thousands dead in a matter of weeks.

The positivity rate — proportion of samples tested that return positive for Covid-19 – in Delhi fell to 4.76%, down from 5.5% the previous day. Before this, the lowest positivity rate in the city was 4.64% on April 4.

At its peak of the April-May surge, the positivity rate hit an all-time high of 36.24% on April 22.

The test positivity rate is a crucial metric to judge the spread of an infection in an area. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a number below 5% for a twoweek period for an infection to be considered under control.

In the past seven days, 7.58% of all samples have tested positive in the Capital, down sharply from 17.93% in the previous week ending May 14.

New cases too kept up their steady drop in the city, with 3,009 fresh infections logged, showed the Delhi government’s health bulletin on Friday. Delhi recorded 3,231 new infections on Thursday, and 3,846 cases the day before that.

The seven-day average of cases, known as the case trajectory, dropped below the 5,000 mark on Friday for the first time in 43 days. A week ago on May 14, Delhi added an average of 12,588 cases every day.

However, the daily death toll increased in Delhi on Friday, with 252 more people dying of the infection, the health bulletin showed, compared to 233 deaths the previous day. However, the seven-day average of deaths has dropped continuously for the past five days, from 312 on May 17 to 275 on Friday.

To be sure, any drop in case trajectory generally takes 14 days to reflect on daily deaths as studies have shown that the median time between someone testing positive for Covid-19 and dying from it is around 13.8 days.

“It is a good sign, but it is one day. We have to wait for at least the rolling weekly average to come below 5%; it would be better if it is 2%. And, even then, we shouldn’t think about easing all restrictions immediately,” said Dr Lalit Kant, former head of the department of epidemiology at the Indian Council of Medical Research. “A huge proportion of the population must have been exposed to the infection during the current wave; they will likely have some immunity for the next four to six months. We should use this time to prepare for the next surge.”

The drop in new infections has led to a sharp fall in the active case count, which fell to 35,683 on Friday, down from 71,794 a week ago.

This drop in active cases means that hospitalisations for the infection are also on the decline in the city. There were 11,388 people with the infection admitted to various city hospitals as on Thursday night. This means that almost 17,000 of the 28,490 beds earmarked for the treatment of Covid-19 were vacant as on Friday evening, putting the occupancy at 40.4%.

As for intensive care unit (ICU) beds, 1,825 beds were vacant as on Friday evening according to the government’s Delhi Corona app, pegging the occupancy rate at 73.3%. At the peak of the current surge, Delhi had run out of ICU beds entirely.