Is it the end of the ‘Idea of Shiv Sena’?

voter- from the Bhagwa (saffron flag) to the usage of the word sainik (soldier). Shiv Sena became an integral part of neighbourhoods in Mumbai and the state mainly through its shakhas and widely-laid networks of patronage.

In this political journey, every time the party faced an internal crisis, it managed to retain its ideological appeal and hold with the support of its local cadre which remained loyal to the Shiv Sena Pramukh (first Bal Thackeray and then Uddhav Thackeray). Shinde’s rebellion aided by the BJP was unprecedented not merely due to the scale of the rebellion but also because it sought to appropriate brand Shiv Sena. The Election Commission’s decision on Friday is a bigger victory for the BJP than it might seem for the Shinde faction. With its ambitions to control the state and the country’s richest civic body, the BJP has long been waiting for this moment of flux within the Shiv Sena.

ECI’s decision will obviously sow confusion in the minds of the Shiv Sena’s voters as a large number of voters vote on the basis of an electoral symbol and will adversely impact Uddhav Thackeray. But the tremors will also likely be felt among the party grassroots as the name Shiv Sena has become an integral part of their lives. The uncertainty that came with the defection of MLAs and MPs and the aggressive attempts of the Shinde-BJP duo to topple Uddhav is likely to push many to jump on the other side ahead of elections. The outcome also opens doors for the BJP to push its Hindutva through the Sena’s bhagwa.

While Uddhav’s contribution towards building the party and his position as heir apparent of Balasaheb has created a huge wave of support and sympathy for him, it’s tough to assess whether that would be enough for the political battle that lies ahead. The number of MPs and MLAs who have defected with Shinde, the political and financial clout of the Shinde-BJP combine and finally the passing over of the Shiv Sena identity to them is a deadly threat for Uddhav Thackeray’s faction. The upcoming civic elections would be a litmus test not just for the Thackerays but also for the lakhs of sainiks who have nurtured the idea of the Shiv Sena germinated by Bal Thackeray.

(Dr. Sanjay Patil’s doctoral work looks at the journey of Shiv Sena between 1985 and 2022. He works at the University of Mumbai and has been chronicling the Shiv Sena’s journey for the last ten years.)