Max temperatures already at mid-March levels in 7 states

NEW DELHI: Should India brace for an early summer in 2023?

The answer to this question holds the key to wheat production, and by extension, farm incomes and inflation.

An HT analysis of India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) gridded dataset shows that some parts of the country are already running ahead of the curve as far as the onset of summer is concerned. To be sure, a warmer February only means a higher probability of a warmer March – which can be more damaging to the wheat crop – and does not make this a foregone conclusion.

In seven states – this includes Punjab, the third largest producer of wheat in the country – average maximum temperature on at least on one day in the last week reached levels normally seen in mid-March. In another ten states – this includes Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, the largest producers – the maximum was around two weeks ahead (late February levels) on at least one day in the last week. The reason for this early heat is a lack of winter rain this year, as HT reported on February 13. According to IMD’s forecast issued on February 16, there is no relief for most of the country in the next two weeks either. If these trends do not change, they could have a significant adverse effect on this year’s winter crop, especially wheat. The average maximum temperature in the week ending February 16 for India was 27.52 degree Celsius, according to IMD’s gridded dataset. This is 0.39 degrees above the 1981-2010 average for the week, considered the “normal”, and the 23rd highest since 1951.

Last year, the average maximum in this week was 25.4 degrees Celsius and ranked 50th warmest. This suggests that this year has warmed faster than last year, when the maximum rose sharply only in March.

To be sure, the national average hides the fact that some parts of the country are experiencing a faster onset of summer than others. In Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Maharashtra, the week ending February 16 this year was the hottest, second hottest, and third hottest since 1951. In Rajasthan, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Kerala, Odisha, and Mizoram, it was among the 10 hottest. In Punjab, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Tamil Nadu, the week was among the 20 hottest since 1951.

These high temperatures mean that seven states have experienced mid-March maximums at least once in the last week. The average maximum in Odisha and Himachal Pradesh hit the 1981-2010 average for March 18 once last week. This date was March 17 for Gujarat and Rajasthan, March 15 for Chhattisgarh, March 14 for Jharkhand, and March 12 for Punjab. For another 10 states, the maximum was around two weeks ahead on at least one day in the last week. These states are Uttarakhand, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and West Bengal.

Does a warm February necessarily mean that March will also be warm? Purely from a statistical point of view, there is a significant probability of a warm March following a warm February. Of the 39 warmer than normal February months since 1951, 27 were followed by a warmer than normal March. However, there is no strong correlation in the temperature deviation in these two months. In fact, the three hottest February months (2006, 1960, and 1967) were followed by a colder than normal March, which means that one must wait before pressing the panic button as far as the fate of the winter crop is concerned.