BJP wins, Sena shows support, Oppn stays mum

IF THE BILL IS STAYED IN THE HIGH COURT, THE PROTESTING MARATHAS ARE UNLIKELY TO GIVE CREDIT TO BJP GOVT. THE PARTY MAY INSTEAD FACE A BACKLASH

MUMBAI: It was a day of triumph for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Thursday as it cleared the amendment for 16% for the Maratha community. Mega celebrations followed in the saffron camp as both the houses of the state legislature cleared the bill without any discussion. The sulking ally, Shiv Sena, also closed ranks with the BJP on the quota issue, even as a largely subdued Opposition took to the sidelines.

But this success in the legislature may not necessarily lead to political dividends in the 2019 polls. A lot now depends on how the legislation fares in the court. If the bill is stayed in the high court soon after opponents challenge the quota, the protesting Marathas are unlikely to give credit to the Bjp-led government and instead the ruling party may face backlash. So far, the community had held 58 silent marches seeking quota. This year, the protests turned violent with as many as 40 youngsters committing suicide, putting more pressure on the BJP government to deliver.

“The bill is a political decision and we had little room to manoeuvre as the previous government had granted 16% quota to Marathas. Our best bet is no stay in the court. We are aware there will be a long legal battle well unto 2019 Assembly polls. But if the bill is not stayed, we will score a brownie point with Marathas, without hurting the OBCS, who are our support base,” said a senior BJP minister.

While Marathas make up around 30% of the population, the OBCS constitute nearly 50% of the state. Marathas are seen as traditional supporters of the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), but a section of the community did vote for the BJP in 2014 polls.

“Today, it is advantage BJP. But this advantage will remain only if the court does not stay the reservation. Also, even though OBCS are unhappy, the government’s legislation specifies that their existing quota won’t be hit. So they may not turn against the party,” said Abhay Deshpande, political analyst.

The uncertainty over how the legislation will do in courts and how Marathas and OBCS will react in an election year is the reason Congress and NCP also played it safe and chose to not debate the bill.

“Why should we be seen as anti-maratha by discussing the bill too much? Also, OBC leaders within our parties, like in the Opposition camp, are not thrilled with this decision. So a debate could have led to unsavoury comments that were best avoided,” said a senior Congress leader.

“The credit for today goes to Sakal Maratha Samaj that raised the demand for reservation through 58 morchas. It was the Congress government’s decision to grant reservation that has finally been implemented. The BJP government took more than four years to complete legal formalities,” said Congress state president Ashok Chavan.