NDA must rethink the job scenario
picture, the government has been citing numbers such as Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) enrolment statistics to paint a rosy picture on the job front. Interestingly, the Reserve Bank of India’s consumer confidence survey, which is conducted in urban areas, has been showing a weakening perception around employment and income prospects in the recent period. Whether or not there is a public admission, there is bound to be a rethink in the government about the employment scenario in the country.
Growing urban discontent will also be more difficult to handle as traditional stimulus mechanisms such as higher Minimum Support Prices and debt-waivers cannot be exercised effectively in cities.
This is where social fault lines come into play. Trying to forge a rainbow Hindu coalition has been a time-tested strategy for the BJP. The received wisdom in Indian politics perceives the division between the BJP and the Congress as the manifestation of a communalism versus secularism binary. At best, this is a half truth.
A 2016 survey among young Indians by Csds-lokniti showed that there was little difference among BJP and non-bjp supporters on ideological issues germane to a liberal-illiberal classification except on beef eating.
The Congress’s efforts to reach out to the “conscious” Hindu voter through gestures such as temple visits etc, are a vindication of this fact. It will be interesting to see how the Congress reacts to the BJP’S polarisation tactics in the run up to 2019.
To be sure, it will not be easy for the BJP to recreate a rainbow Hindu coalition. The party has been facing difficulties in maintaining a balance between its newly acquired social allies and old supporters. Dalits accuse it of being pro-upper caste. Upper castes think they are being taken for granted now.
And the vagaries of FPTP mean that the opposition can gain disproportionately in terms of seats even if a small section of the BJP’S social base shifts camps.
So, while the BJP is still better placed than the opposition in terms of 2019, its challenges have increased on more than one front.