March-may may be warmer than usual
NEW DELHI: Winter is officially over and the summer promises to be warmer than normal in most subdivisions of northwest, west and central India and some parts of peninsular India.
And according to the weather office, at this point in time, chances of El Nino, a weather phenomenon associated with deficient monsoons in India, are low.
A forecast for March, April, May by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said above normal heat wave conditions are likely in the so-called core heat wave zone. This covers Punjab, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana, subdivisions of Marathawada, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
The heat wave zone refers to areas prone to heat waves.
According to IMD, heat wave is recorded when departure of maximum temperature from normal is + 4 degree C to + 5 degree C or more for the regions where the normal maximum temperature is more than 40 degree C and departure of maximum temperature from normal is + 5 degree C to + 6 degree C for regions where the normal maximum temperature is 40 degree C or less (Heat Wave is declared only when the maximum temperature of a station reaches at least 40 degree C for plains and at least 30 degree C for hilly regions). Heat wave is also declared when actual maximum temperature remains 45 degree C or more irrespective of normal maximum temperature. And even in the absence of a heat wave, these areas will be hotter, the IMD said. There is about a 43% probability of maximum temperatures in the core heat wave zone being above normal.
The forecast indicates average temperatures are likely to be higher than normal by at least 0.5 degree C in northwest, west and central India and some subdivisions in south India. Near normal temperatures are likely in the remaining subdivisions. The mean temperatures for the three months are likely to be higher than normal by at least 1 degree C in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and West Rajasthan. The maximum temperatures are also expected to be at least 1 degree C higher in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Rajasthan and Arunachal.
The forecast also said that warm El Nino Southern Oscillation (Enso)-neutral conditions are prevailing over equatorial Pacific Ocean and that the latest forecast indicates cooling of sea surfaces temperatures in summer leading to ENSO neutral conditions. El Nino is a weather phenomenon characterised by warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. “Average temperatures in pre-monsoon season could be higher than normal due to low pre-monsoon rains in northwest. Sea surface temperatures are also slightly above normal, which will contribute to higher summer temperatures,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President, Climate and Meteorology, at private forecaster Skymet Weather.