‘Boosting bed capacity to handle Covid spread’
At least 60-65% people are in our Covid Care Centres (CCC), where we have 35,000 beds. The remaining 40% are in health centres and hospitals [(dedicated Covid health centres (DCHC), and dedicated Covid hospitals (DCH)]. The capacity of our DCHC and DCH is 4,200 beds. Presently, 400 beds are vacant.
The BMC has planned that 200 beds will be added from the government’s side daily. We are also going for jumbo ICUS now at Sevenhills hospital, BKC grounds, JJ Hospital and St George hospital. Private hospitals have promised me they will create additional beds for Mumbai. With all this, Mumbai can jump to 8000 beds very fast, and be ahead of the Covid-19 outbreak’s pace.
Moreover, I am trying to enhance beds at CCCS as well. Today I am visiting NCSI dome, where we are establishing a 50-bed ICU, which can be scaled up to 200 beds. Similarly, beds at the BKC grounds are reaching 1000. At BKC grounds, I plan to put 300 ICU beds and make it into a DCHC.
When will Mumbai flatten the curve?
The lockdown is a very good decision. Our cases are 14,000+, and our doubling rate is 10 days. This rate will remain only if Mumbai gets 1400 cases in one day, but instead we are getting 600 to 700 cases. So Mumbai may touch the doubling rate of 14 in 3-4 days. The moment that happens, even if it happens in seven days, by May 20 or 21, Mumbai can compete with the 14-day cycle, due to the new discharge policy of the Government of India. If some patients can get discharged on the 7th or 8th day or the 10th day and the doubling rate is touching 14, it will show a downward curve.
In another scenario, some of these patients will still take a maximum of 14 days to be discharged and because the doubling rate is projected to be 14, another person will come to occupy the same bed in 14 days. Bed management will stabilise. By May 31, the doubling rate can go up to 17 or 18 and the battle is almost won.
How long can the lockdown practically last?
I am very open to kickstarting the economy of the city, but we have to be very wise while doing it. Yesterday, I opened the entire diamond market of Mumbai. In the diamond market, where there is very limited labour and specialised labour, and there are ₹5,000-crore exports waiting to happen, opening up the market can be beneficial. Next, I will look at Nariman Point. But none of these can happen at the cost of spreading Covid-19. If I feel something is going to spread Covid-19, like opening a wine shop with long queues, then I am not going to change that till the end of May.
Do you think there will be a situation where you may have to take a stance contradictory to the state or Centre, like it happened with opening of liquor shops?
I have already discussed this with the chief minister and chief secretary of Maharashtra. I have said I will take the government into confidence before taking any decision for Mumbai. Once we announce a decision on BMC level, it shall not be changed.
What is your assessment of Dharavi?
When I was in Dharavi, I asked the ward officer to show me a map of Dharavi, and show me in colours where all the virus has spread. I was surprised to see there are no Covid-19 cases in 80% of Dharavi. There has to be a difference between a containment zone in Dharavi and in a posh 30-storey building in the rest of the city. They cannot have the same parameters.
How challenging is this posting?
I was monitoring Covid-19 at state level for the past 50 days. I got associated with Covid-19 [management work] on March 21, when the Maharashtra government announced the lockdown.
The chief minister made me in-charge of monitoring the entire state, my Google drives are filled with 34 collectors and 27 municipal commissioner’s data, monitoring their contacttracing efforts, containment zones and hospital categories. I was doing all of this for the entire state. In April, I made the hospital management plan – CCCS, DCHCS, and DCHS for the state. When I joined the BMC, I was already 45 days into the fight.
How prepared is Mumbai to handle the monsoon?
Every week, once or twice I am going to inspect the nullahs and Mithi river. At Mithi, instead of eight hours, dredging is happening for 16 hours. The road work was suffering due to lack of labour. We now have a software that will estimate how much cement is needed for any stretch of road. I have asked them to use the software and make payments, so dozens of people don’t have to stand on the road taking measurements for work to commence. The work will speed up.