Heatwave...

It has warned of heatwaves in Rajasthan (May 21-25); western Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Telangana (May 21-24); coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, north interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal (May 21-23); eastern Madhya Pradesh, Rayalseema and Uttar Pradesh (May 22-25).

A heatwave is declared when the maximum temperature hits 45 degrees Celsius or is above 40 degrees Celsius in summer with a variation of five degrees or more above the normal temperatures. IMD said a feeble western disturbance on Friday is likely to bring rain and thundershowers to J&K, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand and light thundershowers to Haryana, Punjab and Delhi. It added maximum temperatures, however, are likely to rise in the northern plains.

Western disturbances are lowpressure systems that originate over the Mediterranean and are known to bring winter rain in India. National Weather Forecasting Centre head K Sathi Devi said “...one is there is no clouding. There are clear skies almost all over the country except where the cyclone or depression is. The other reason is there is advection; wind patterns have changed after the cyclone.”

Sunita Devi, the in-charge of cyclones at IMD, said, “Because of the cyclone, all the moisture is concentrated around it while dry, north-westerly winds are blowing over the rest of the country, which causes temperatures to peak gradually.”

Even June is expected to be very hot. “If there is no western disturbance, NW [north western] India will be hot even in June. Hot winds from desert regions will heat up the region as wind patterns have changed after Amphan,” said D S Pai, a senior scientist at IMD, Pune.

M Mohapatra, director-general, IMD, said the atmosphere is disturbed after a cyclone passes . “It takes time to come back to normal,” he said. cases daily. In the past 16 days, the state has recorded 26,283 cases, which means on an average, it is getting over 1,600 fresh cases daily.

In May (past 21 days) alone, the state has reported as many as 31,310 cases, whereas the total number of cases registered in April was 10,201.

Till April-end, the number of new cases were in the range of 500, after which it turned into four digits since May 6.

The fresh infections since May 6 are as follows: May 6 1,233; May 7 - 1,216, May 8 - 1,089; May 9 -1,165; May 10 - 1,278 cases, May 11 – 1,230; May 12 – 1,026; May 13 – 1,495; May 14 – 1,602, May 15 – 1,576 and May 16 – 1,606. Besides, on May 10, the state also declared 665 cases additionally, saying that they were registered in the few days prior to that and are being declared as per the Central government’s directive to bring the data at par with the national figures on the ICMR website.

The first case of coronavirus was reported on March 9 and it took 30 days for the state to cross the 1,000 mark. For the first 10,000 cases, it took 53 days.

Dr Tatyarao Lahane, director, Directorate of Medical Education and Research (DMER), said the state has not reached the community transmission stage — where the source of infection is unknown —as there is no exponential growth in the number of fresh cases. Also, state health authorities are expecting a flattening of the curve by this month end. “We are waiting for another 14-day incubation cycle to end on May 31, after which the rise is likely to come under control and gradually, the decline will start,” he said. He, however, also said if it doesn’t happen, then the rise may also lead to a community transmission stage.

The number of recoveries has also jumped to 11,726 as 1,408 patients recovered on Thursday.

The mortality rate of the state has come down to 3.54% (1390 deaths) on Wednesday, from 7.41% (148 cases) on April 13. However, it continued to be higher than the national mortality rate of 3.06% (3,435 deaths) till Wednesday, stated the data of the state medical education department.

Last week, state health minister Rajesh Tope said the peak has not come yet and it may come by June-end. “All the predictions about the rise in cases in Mumbai and Maharashtra have not come true, but the numbers are rising and the peak is yet to come. Going by the mathematical predictions, the actual peak is likely to come by June-end. It means by June-end, the number of cases in Mumbai will increase four times. We are trying to prevent it from happening, but we have to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best,” Tope had said.

So far, 26,865 people have been kept in institutional quarantine in the state and over 4,37,304 people have been put under home quarantine.

On Thursday, the state also completed 59 days of lockdown that was imposed from midnight of March 23, a day before the nationwide lockdown imposed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It was partially lifted on April 20 in the areas where there are no cases or minimal cases.

The state government, by its notification issued on Tuesday (May 19), allowed more industrial and commercial activities in rural and semi-urban areas by excluding them from red zones. The relaxations, however, will come into force from Friday. By restructuring red zones, it has also reduced the area under curbs of the lockdown to just 18 municipal corporations, having a population of 2.91 crore. Earlier, 14 districts with a population of 6.56 crore were under the red zones.

“Allowing more activities in more districts will help not only in ensuring revenue generation, but also in sending a positive message to people who are under distress due to the pandemic,” said a senior minister. On Monday, the health department also declared to have conducted 3,19,710 tests at various public and private facilities across Maharashtra. Of them, 2,78,068 people tested negative.

State currently has 1,949 active containment zones. A total of 15,894 survey teams, comprising doctors and assisting staff, have screened more than 64.89 lakh people.

Of the state’s 36 districts, Gadchiroli was the only one that was not having a single case till May 18. However, some migrant workers, who returned to the district from Mumbai, tested positive and now it has seven cases.

ON MONDAY, THE HEALTH DEPARTMENT ALSO DECLARED TO HAVE CONDUCTED 3,19,710 TESTS AT VARIOUS PUBLIC AND PRIVATE FACILITIES ACROSS MAHARASHTRA