Monsoon set to arrive in Mumbai on June 11: IMD
The arrival of the southwest monsoon can be expected over the city next week close to its new normal onset date of June 11, the weather bureau said.
As a low-pressure area (weather system) develops over the Bay of Bengal around June 8, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said it will enhance rainfall activity over the coast, especially the Konkan region, including Mumbai.
“Based on examples witnessed in previous years and our weather models, when a lowpressure system develops over the Bay of Bengal, it leads to rainfall activity over the west coast due to changing wind patterns and increased moisture incursions. It is a positive development as it will allow further advancement of monsoon, and most probably it will meet its new normal onset date of June 11 for Mumbai,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general, IMD.
Last month, IMD revised its normal onset date for major cities across India and declared that the arrival would be delayed by a day (from June 10 to June 11) and withdrawal date by nine days (from September 29 to October 8). This means the southwest monsoon is likely to have an extended stay for eight days from this year onwards, according to IMD.
Independent meteorologists were divided over the possible
monsoon onset date.
Sridhar Balasubramanian, associate professor, department of mechanical engineering and associate faculty, IDP Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology-bombay (IIT-B) explained that due to the system over the Bay of Bengal, an offshore trough (weather system due to strong wind currents) would form along with a possible cyclonic circulation (a stream of air flowing at higher altitudes) in the Arabian Sea, close to Gujarat.
“Heavy rains to the tune of 90-100 mm is generally seen over Mumbai. Given these dynamics, June 12 is likely onset over Mumbai followed by some heavy rains anytime between June 13 and 15,”
said Balasubramanian, adding that the offshore trough will extend from Mumbai to Kerala coasts.
Akshay Deoras, independent meteorologist and PHD researcher at the University of Reading, the UK said several models were suggesting that monsoon would reach Konkan and Mumbai between June 14 and 16. “Proper rainfall is expected to commence in Mumbai from around 12 June. Arrival over interior Maharashtra is expected through the week starting June 15,” he said.
Private weather forecaster Skymet said that onset of monsoon was expected between June 12 and 13.