Monsoon...

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said monsoon had advanced into parts of Konkan, central Maharashtra, and Marathwada on Thursday with the onset line passing through Harnai in Ratnagiri district and Solapur district in southwest Maharashtra.

“The conditions are favourable for further advancement of monsoon in some more parts of Maharashtra, including Mumbai, over the next 48 hours. A warning for heavy rainfall has been issued,” said KS Hosalikar, deputy director-general, western region, IMD. “Rain intensity is likely to increase across the Konkan coast, central Maharashtra and Marathwada owing to a low pressure area over Bay of Bengal (around north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coast), a cyclonic circulation over south Gujarat region, and an active offshore trough extending from Karnataka to Kerala.”

According to IMD’S new onset dates released last month, normal onset for Maharashtra is around June 8. Last year, Maharashtra and Mumbai witnessed its most delayed monsoon onset in 45 years on June 20. In 2018 and 2017 it was June 8, while it was delayed in 2016 and 2015 on June 18 and 14.

Earlier this week, IMD had predicted that the onset of monsoon is expected in Mumbai around Thursday (June 11). “But the progression of monsoon towards Mumbai was marginally delayed because of a slight slower movement of the weather system over the Bay of Bengal. However, the onset over Maharashtra and expected onset over Mumbai by June 13 will still be considered as normal onset as we consider a standard deviation of plus-minus seven days for monsoon arrival,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, directorgeneral, IMD.

Independent meteorologists, however, said present weather conditions over southern Maharashtra were not conducive enough to declare monsoon onset. “Monsoon winds are yet to reach Konkan and south-central Maharashtra since the near-surface wind direction over these areas is from the northwest instead of required west or southwest. The wind pattern over a region needs to be seriously considered, while declaring the monsoon’s progression,” said Akshay Deoras, meteorologist and PHD researcher at the department of meteorology, University of Reading, the United Kingdom (UK). “Several models including that of the IMD continue to indicate the arrival of the monsoon in most of Konkan, including Mumbai during June 14-16.”

Mahesh Palawat, vice president (meteorology and climate change), Skymet said, “Conditions look favourable for monsoon onset over Mumbai by June 14 or 15.” Skymet had earlier said onset was expected on June 13.

Deoras added that coastal districts of Sindhudurg, Ratnagiri and Raigad were expected to receive moderate to heavy rain between June 14 and 16. “Mumbai is likely to witness more persistent and some intense showers during June 15 and 16,” he said.

Mumbai and its suburbs recorded light overnight showers between Wednesday night and Thursday morning. South Mumbai recorded 1.1 mm rain, while the suburbs received 5.6 mm. No rain was recorded between 8.30am and 5.30pm Thursday as the maximum and minimum temperatures were close to the normal mark.

MUMBAI FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM TO BE LAUNCHED TODAY

The country’s second urban flood warning system will be launched on Friday by chief minister Uddhav Thackeray and Union minister Dr Harsh Vardhan. HT had reported on Wednesday that the system will provide early warning for flooding, specially during high rainfall events and cyclones. Jointly conceived by several departments of the ministry of earth sciences and Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), the system will estimate ward wise flood levels, assess vulnerable areas and identify mitigation measures. tion of norms. As of June 9, Mumbai alone has 798 containment zones in the city. A statement from Tope said that the minister made a request to the Centre to take a re-look at the norms and halve it to reduce the strain on the police personnel deployed outside hotspots.

“All activities are restricted inside a containment zone until no cases are reported for 28 days. Heavy police deployment is done to ensure the implementation is carried and a large chunk of the police is deployed in these areas. The Centre should look at reducing these curbs from 28 days to 14 so that the police force can be rested and put on duty elsewhere. The Centre should issue guidelines on this,” the statement said.

Of the 152 deaths reported on Thursday, 35 were from the last two days while remaining had taken place from April 1 to June 8. Of the total fatalities, 119 are from Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), including 97 from Mumbai, nine from Mira Bhayander and seven from Kalyan-dombivli. Eight each were from Pune and Solapur. 85 of the people who died were above 60 years of age and 107 of them had comorbidities.

A total of 15,533 samples have been tested in the past 24 hours, with a positivity rate of 23.22%. With 41 private and 54 owned by the government, state has 95 laboratories for coronavirus tests. Currently, 5,73,606 people are under home quarantine.

Tope also reiterated the state government’s demand to resume suburban train services for the workforce in essential and emergency services.

“I have requested the Union health minister that limited local train services for the workforce in essential and emergency services should be allowed. I am confident he would discuss the demand with the prime minister and we expect a decision at the earliest.

Chief minister Uddhav Thackeray on Wednesday had reiterated the demand to start local train services so that people who reside in far-flung suburbs and employed at hospitals and in other essential services can resume work to tackle the Covid-19 situation in the city.

According to the officials from the state government, the Centre has been informed how it is important to ease out the stress on essential services, including healthcare workers and police. “After private offices are allowed to operate, BEST buses are plying at crowded areas, making it difficult for these frontline workers to commute. We cannot be fully dependent on road transport, while easing restrictions,” the officer said.

The mortality rate in the state went up in the past few days, reaching 3.7% on Thursday, from 3.25% on May 25 and 3.37% on May 31, even as the national rate witnessed a gradual fall. The national mortality rate too saw bit of rise and reported 2.83% on Thursday from 2.78% on Sunday, but it has been on a gradual slide from 3.06% on May 21 and 2.84% on May 31.

“There could be a marginal hike in the rate, but it’s not worrisome as the difference it not too high. The rise may be because of a few elements related to test, disease pattern, late admission and it has been witnessed globally. Our mortality is well within control, compared to other countries,” said Dr Avinash Supe, former KEM dean and member of the expert committee appointed by the state to recommend steps to curb the spread.

Dr Supe said that the surge the state has been witnessing a mix of trends, as in some parts like Dharavi the cases are on decline, while in some areas like Malad, the cases are on the rise. “Until we are prepared with good health infrastructure and patients are getting required line of treatment, there is no need to worry about the surge,” he said.