Why cases in Maha continue to spike

MUMBAI: On June 27, Maharashtra reported 6368 new Covid-19 cases (after reconciliation of 1,050 cases), a record single-day spike not only for the state, but for India as well. This was the fourth consecutive single-day spike record for the western state, India’s worst-affected region that has seen 164,626 cumulative cases. From June 24 to June 28, excluding the record on June 27, Maharashtra recorded 3890, 4841, 5024 and 5493 new cases.

In the past week, until June 27, the state has recorded more than 4,400 new cases a day on an average, compared to 3,400 the week before that. The doubling rate of cases – the number of days it takes for a given number of infections to double – has dropped from 24 days a week ago to 22 days as of Saturday.

The positivity rate, too, has shown no signs of slowing down. Two weeks ago, the state had an average positivity rate of 20.6%. Since then, it has slowly, but steadily been rising despite a big increase in daily tests — on June 27, the positivity rate stood at 22%. This means that the more samples that the state tests, the more the positive cases. Experts say it is an alarming sign.

HT spoke to 10 district health officers (DHOS), and each of them said the cases have surged primarily due to a relaxation in the national and state lockdowns and the human migration from metropolises to smaller cities and villages.

Dr Aniruddha Athalye, (DHO), Satara, said, “We have recorded 42 Covid-related deaths, but 40 of them were migrants from Mumbai who died within a few hours of admission in hospitals due to delay in treatment.”