Maha lock, unlock: Opening up about 4 months
A look at if four months of lockdown has helped, what should have been different and way ahead
THE STATE STARTED A GRADUAL LOCKDOWN SINCE MID-MARCH, AFTER A CASE WAS REPORTED IN PUNE
spread. The effects of such limited period lockdown show after 10 to 15 days,” a senior bureaucrat said.
In Mumbai, the daily average rise in cases has been 1,200 for the past couple of weeks. State authorities said lower positivity rate amid more testing is a good sign. Dr Om Shrivastav, an infectious diseases specialist and a member of the state government-appointed task force on Covid-19, argued that higher number of cases should not be the parameter for assessment. “Instead of going into the numbers, we should look at the case fatality rate (CFR), which is lower in the state [at 3.72%]. We have done quite well in the lockdown period and later too. Dharavi has emerged as a model for the entire country and even the state on how to contain the spread,” Dr Shrivastav said, adding that the Dharavi model can be replicated elsewhere in the state.
THE CONTROL
On May 1, the overall positivity rate in the state was 7.51%, which doubled in a month to 14.84% on June 1. The positivity rate has increased to 20.01% on July 22. In other words, seven out of every 100 samples were turning out to be positive on May 1, which climbed to nearly 15 samples on June 1.
Experts said high positivity rate is a reflection of the increase in the prevalence of the virus. However, state health department officials differed. They said a higher strike rate in tests was a result of targeted testing.
The positivity rate in most days of July has been between 22% and 25%. The state has been conducting an average of 35,000 tests for the past few days. Maharashtra has been seeing over 8,000 cases daily for the past seven days, including 10,576 new cases on July 22.
“The decision to unlock activities in the state was taken consciously. It was made keeping the economy in mind. How long can a lockdown last and at what cost? Initially, the industries, shops and businesses were allowed in areas that did not have a high number of cases. Gradually, the state decided to extend it to Mumbai, Thane, Palghar and Pune districts as well as areas that see a major chunk of business activities. We had anticipated that the cases would rise once the restrictions are lifted and that has happened. However, things are not out of control,” a senior state bureaucrat said, requesting anonymity.
Following the unlocking of activities, the number of daily cases shot up in parts of MMR, Pune, Nashik, Aurangabad and Solapur districts. “There are no projections, but looking at the current trend, the cases are expected to rise till August, after which we can probably see a plateau. In Mumbai, it is expected to happen earlier, as the cases are not growing at that speed now,” Yadav said.
While Kerala became the first state in the country to announce that it has reached the community transmission stage, the Maharashtra health department has denied it. “We are not in the community transmission stage. The numbers are growing, but are not multiplying, which happens in that stage,” Yadav said. Dr Shrivastav said people must continue to adopt measures they did during lockdown. “We need to make sure that we don’t lose the advantage we had during the lockdown.”