Economy needs a boost, say experts
MUMBAI: How long will the lockdown continue? Four months after the country’s most industrialised state went into a lockdown, a day before the national lockdown was imposed on the midnight of March 24, Maharashtra is treading cautiously while answering this question. While some curbs have been lifted, the surge in cases has made the government defer the plan for more relaxations, even as experts stress the need to open the economy faster.
After four phases of the lockdown till May 31, the state government rolled out its Mission Begin Again from June 3, allowing activities in a calibrated manner.
Beginning with jogging, cycling at grounds and parks, shops and establishments were allowed to open on alternate days and private offices were allowed to open with 10% of their staff. Salons and beauty parlours were opened from June 28, and hotels from July 8 in subsequent phases.
“We were planning to allow more staff in private offices and add more means of public transport to enable smooth operations of offices from the first week of July. However, a sudden spike in cases in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, excluding Mumbai, and Pune and other districts forced us to defer it. Stricter curbs were imposed in these areas. Although cases in Mumbai have stabilised, activities can’t open up in the city due to heavy movement of floating population from the neighbouring cities,” said a Sena minister.
A section of the state cabinet and even the bureaucracy is split over the strategy. The differences between the three ruling parties came to the fore during the lockdown as NCP chief Sharad Pawar was in favour of opening up more activities, while CM Uddhav Thackeray exercised caution.
“Barring containment zones, activities should be opened up now, as the economy is badly hampered. The state lacks consistency in its strategy of unlocking the activities. At this pace, there will be no normalcy at least for two months,” said a senior state government official.
Neeraj Hatekar, professor of economics, Mumbai University said, “Serological surveys in areas like Dharavi show 40% of the population has already been infected. If the doubling rate in Dharavi is more than a year, as projected, let us open up industries there. Offices, industries, shops in Mumbai should be opened up, as the growth rate has dropped to 1.07%. If the government fears transmission from neighbouring cities like Kalyan-dombivli and Thane, unlocking can be rolled out in Mumbai first. Mumbai, Thane, Pune, Nashik are the nerve centres of the economy,” he said.
Public health minister Rajesh Tope said there would be no more lockdowns and gradual unlocking will be rolled out. He said the government was also thinking about increasing the percentage of employees in offices.
Dr Sanjay Pattiwar, public health consultant, said, “It has been four months of lockdown and nobody knows if the risk of the infection recedes in the next six months. Instead of waiting more, the state should start opening the sectors which are organised, disciplined and require lower footfall. Instead of asking people to stay home, they should be sensitised.”
Industries minister and Sena leader Subhash Desai said, “The decisions will depend on the preparedness. Many political leaders like deputy CM Ajit Pawar were against the lockdown in their districts a few weeks ago, but they had to impose it in their areas like Pune. The situation was similar in Aurangabad, which I represent as the guardian minister. We had allowed industrial activities which led to a large number of patients in areas like Waluj. After a 10-day lockdown, there is drop in patients and deaths.”
He said lockdown and unlocking will be a back-and-forth process. “It may or may not take two months to get to normal.”