Battle...

To be sure, there is a counter view as well: “There are reports of cases coming from rural areas, but the advantage that we have there is that population density is low because of which cases can be identified, isolated, and treated early. In these areas, surveillance can be far better and also compliance, and that is instrumental in controlling spread of the disease effectively,” says Dr VK Paul, member, Niti Aayog, who also chairs one of the National Task Forces on Covid-19 management.

“Having said that, we have to be careful and concentrate on rural areas as some of the villages may suffer from lack of adequate health infrastructure to manage positive cases,” he added.

The analysis also shows that few of India’s 734 districts are untouched by Covid-19: More than 700 districts and the national capital have reported cases so far. When a nationwide lockdown was imposed on March 25, just over a hundred districts had reported cases (many of them just had one case). The number of affected districts was more than 600 by the end of May.

Experts said that the spread of the disease in rural pockets may lead to a long-drawn battle. “We’ve seen the disease spread like wildfire in cities such as Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai. But equally fast, the governments were able to bring the outbreak into relative control. What we are likely to see in villages will not be like this – it will be a slow- and long-burning fire, which will be much harder to contain. But in general, villages are already disadvantaged because of their inadequate health care system, so this may end up becoming a much longer battle,” said Dr T Jacob John, professor emeritus and former head of virology at Christian Medical College, Vellore.

The analysis classifies districts into five categories based on the proportion of the rural population – entirely urban (under 20% of the rural population), mostly urban (20%-40% rural), mixed (40%-60% rural), mostly rural (60% to 80% rural) and entirely rural (over 80% rural population). The proportion of the rural population is based on the 2011 census (the latest data available).

According to the analysis, 55% of the about 1.4 million new Covid-19 cases reported in August (those cases where the district is known) have come from 584 districts in the last two categories. This was not the case earlier. Only 23% of new cases reported in April came from these districts. This share, though, has been steadily increasing every month – it was 28% in May, 24% in June and 41% in July.

As Covid-19 shifts away from the urban centres, 16 urban districts (15 districts plus Delhi) where the share of rural population is less than 20% reported only 13% of the country’s Covid-19 cases in August. More than 44% new cases reported in April, May and June came from these urban districts. In July, 23% of the cases came from these districts (See Chart 1).

The bulk of the rural challenge is likely to be centred around two states that have sizeable rural populations – Uttar Pradesh and Bihar – which have seen a rapid and steady growth of cases in the past few weeks. The two states, which together account for more than a quarter of the country’s population, are also among the states with the lowest testing rates in the country despite a recent jump in numbers in the past few weeks. Both have conducted a little over 20,000 tests per million of their population against the national average of around 28,000.

Nearly all major metropolitan cities in the country are districts among themselves, with the exception of Delhi, which consists of 11 revenue districts. However, the Delhi government does not release a district-wise breakup of cases, deaths and recoveries.

The move into the hinterland has also decreased the share of metros in new Covid-19 cases. For instance, about 40% of the country’s Covid-19 cases in June were being reported from only three metro cities – Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai. They accounted for only 6% of the new cases in August.

The number of Covid-19 cases reported in urban areas is still disproportionately higher than their population. The 16 districts which reported 13% of new Covid-19 cases in August are home to only 5.6% of India’s population. Similarly, the 584 districts where the share of rural population is more than 60% are home to 74% population, but reported only 55% of new Covid-19 cases this month.

The disproportionate role of urban areas is also reflected in the number of cases currently active in the country. Regions with the recent outbreaks generally tend to have a higher share of active cases. Of the 10 districts with the most active cases in the country, seven are city districts or districts that constitute a single city, and thus entirely urban. This can also be explained by two other factors: the number of cases in rural India are spread over a large number of districts; and at least some of the active cases are those from June and July.

The number of active cases — those still under treatment — directly reflects the pressure on the health care system in any region. It is calculated by subtracting the number of recovered patients and deaths from the total tally. As of Tuesday night, of the 3,229,351 total Covid-19 cases in the country, 704,672 (21.8%) were active, according to HT’S Covid-19 dashboard.

With over 44,717 cases out of the 150,207 cases in Pune active, the city tops this list. It is followed by Bengaluru with 34,877 cases active out of the 107,875 cases, and Thane, where 20,372 cases out of the 122,626 infections are active. Delhi, which is the city with the most cases in the country, had 11,778 active cases as of Monday.

East Godavari (17,228 active cases as of August 23) and Chittoor (9,999 active cases), both in Andhra Pradesh; and Maharashtra’s Nashik (10,667 active cases) are the only three districts in the top 10 that are not entirely urban.

The only major city-district excluded from this tally is Hyderabad as Telangana does not release recovery and death data for the city.

JEM terrorists (who infiltrated into India) both before and after the attack. They also planned to carry out another suicide attack, which was averted due to Balakot strikes and due to the killing of main conspirator Umar Farooq by the security forces,” said NIA spokesperson Sonia Narang, who was involved in the investigation into the case.

Farooq, according to NIA, was the son of Azhar’s younger brother Ibrahim Athar. Athar and four others hijacked the IC-814 Indian Airlines flight in December 1999, seeking Azhar’s release.

Azhar was freed from an Indian prison in exchange for the 155 passengers of the hijacked aircraft, and went on to found the Jaish in 2000.

Farooq infiltrated into India using a tunnel in the Jammusamba sector in April 2018, and took over as the Jaish commander of Pulwama, according to the agency. Since then, he spent most of his time planning, arranging for logistics and convincing the suicide bomber, Adil Ahmad Dar.

Another Pakistani terrorist related to Azhar’s family, 25-year-old Mohammad Ismail, alias Saifullah, who is currently said to be hiding in the Kashmir valley, infiltrated along with Farooq.

“After infiltrating into India, Umar Farooq took over as Jaishe-mohammad commander of Pulwama and along with his Pakistani compatriots — Kamran Ali, Ismail, Qari Yasir — and local associates Sameer Dar and Adil Ahmad Dar planned and prepared for the attack on security forces using IEDS,” Narang said.

“Investigation also revealed a well-crafted mechanism by Pakistani establishment to push terrorists into the Indian territory from the launch pads located in Shakargarh (Pakistan) opposite Samba-kathua sector in Jammu,” she added.

Apart from Azhar, Asghar Alvi, Ammar Alvi, Farooq, Mohammad Ismail, Kamran Ali and Qari Yasir – all Pakistani nationals – and Indian nationals Adil Ahmad Dar and Sameer Dar, the NIA charge sheet also named Shakir Bashir Magray, Insha Jan, her father Peer Tariq Ahmed Shah, Waiz-ul-islam, Mohammad Abbas Rather, Mohammad Iqbal Rather, Bilal Ahmed Kuchhey, Sajjad Ahmed Bhat, Mudasir Ahmad Khan and Ashaq Ahmed Nengroo.

Farooq, Kamran Ali, Sajjad Ahmed Bhat, Mudasir Ahmad Khan and Qari Yasir have been killed in encounters. Shakir Bashir Magray, Insha Jan, Peer Tariq Ahmed Shah, Mohammad Iqbal Rather, Mohammad Abbas Rather, Bilal Ahmed Kuchhey andwaiz-ul-islamwerearrested. Mohammad Ismail Alvi, Sameer Ahmad Dar and Ashaq Ahmed Nengroo are absconding.

Farooq, a skilled bomb-maker trained in hybrid camps of al Qaeda, Taliban, Jaish and the Haqqani network inside Afghanistan in 2016-17, prepared improvised explosive devices (IEDS) using two jerrycans (one weighing 160kg and another 40kg), gelatin sticks, ammonium nitrate, ammonium powder and RDX on February 5 night, according to the charge sheet.

Ali, also killed in the same encounter as Farooq, Sameer Ahmad Dar and Magray, helped Farooq at Magray’s house. While the RDX was smuggled into India from Pakistan, other explosives were collected by Jaish operatives and overground workers from stone quarries in Kashmir, according to the NIA probe.

On February 6, 2019, the jerrycans filled with explosives were loaded in a Maruti Eeco car that would eventually ram the CRPF convoy eight days later, according to the charge sheet.

Hindustan Times reported exclusively on March 4 this year that Jaish planned to carry out the attack in the first week of February, but postponed its plans since roads were closed and convoy movement stopped due to inclement weather.

According to the NIA probe, Adil Ahmad Dar drove along with the CRPF convoy for a while before ramming it in the bus that was carrying the maximum number of troops.

He was inspired to become a suicide bomber after watching a vitriolic video of Azhar, recorded in October 2018 after the killing of his nephew Usman Haider in Tral by security forces, the NIA said. In the video, the Jaish chief exhorted young Kashmiris to sacrifice their lives for jihad.

“Lot of digital, forensic, documentary and oral evidence establishing a fool-proof case for this dastardly and barbaric attack has been collected. The charge sheet has brought on record the all-out involvement of Pakistan-based entities to carry out terrorist strikes in India and to incite and provoke Kashmiri youth,” Narang said.

She added that non-bailable warrants were issued against Azhar, Alvi, Asghar and other absconding accused persons.

Officials said the charge sheet was an irrefutable piece of evidence — technical, material and circumstantial — on Pakistan’s role in the attack.