Weekly positivity rate continues to rise
MUMBAI: The Covid-19 weekly positivity rate in the state has been on the rise. The weekly positivity rate reached 5.48% on February 9, from 4.51% on February 2 and 4.37% two weeks ago on January 26. The rise is particularly noticeable in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), and it is being attributed to resumption in local trains, reopening of schools and laxity in Covid-appropriate behaviour.
In Mumbai, the positivity rate was 3.60% on February 9, from 3.28% a week ago, while Thane reported 6.09% from 5.65%, and at Raigad, it increased to 3.26% from 2.18% a week ago. In Pune and Nashik, the two other cities with high number of cases, the jump was to 9.05% and 15.67% from 6.83% and 7.82% respectively during this period.
Positivity rate is the total number of cases tested positive for Covid-19 against the total tests done. State’s positivity rate had crossed 24% in September and October 2020 when the epidemic was at its peak.
In rural districts such as Amravati (13.67% from 9.68%), Akola(12.30% from 9.66%), Wardha (11.19% from 4.49%), Yavatmal (10.92% 7.87%), Nagpur (9.24% from 9.09%) and Buldhana (8.28% from 4.05%), the positivity rate has seen a sudden jump over the week. This is being attributed to the weak health infrastructure and drop in the tracking and testing of contacts. Fourteen of 36 districts saw more than state average of weekly positivity rate. It was the highest in Nashik at 15.67%.
The daily testing dropped to 44,151 on February 9 from 56,557 on January 31 and 60,464 on January 21. State health minister Rajesh Tope said authorities have been directed to increase the number of tests. “It is true that in some districts, the positivity rate is too high. They have been told to pull up their socks and increase tracing, tracking and testing. The testing in these districts will be increased,” he said.
Dr Shashank Joshi, leading endocrinologist and member of the state-appointed task force, said, “The overall rate of the rise is not that high and continues to hover around 5%. However, the rising positivity rate is a cause of concern and we are on red alert. It’s too high in districts such as Amravati, Nashik, Akola and Wardha, even as the state’s rate has increased marginally over the past two weeks. We will have to be more cautious. The rise can be attributed to the unlocking of activities, restarting of trains in urban areas and also because of the total lack of compliance with Covid-appropriate behaviour. The reopening of schools and colleges will see a further spurt in cases and positivity rate.”
Maharashtra president of Indian Medical Association Dr Avinash Bhondve also cited similar reasons for the rise in positivity rate. “People have become complacent. There’s lack of Covid-19 appropriate behaviour. The number of attendees at public functions has gone up, there’s crowding at public places, schools and colleges have reopened and trains have resumed services,” he said.
Additional civic commissioner Suresh Kakani said the rise is also because of the surge in the number of domestic and international flights. “Generally, the spike is seen on the sixth-seventh day of opening up of any activity and in case of local trains, we did not see it on February 7 after allowing all to travel in trains from February 1...Thus, the rise cannot be fully attributed to the train travel. We’ll have to observe the situation for at least 10 more days to arrive at any conclusion,” he said. The call on more relaxation for train travel will be taken by February 22, he said.
Meanwhile, the cases in the state and Mumbai have risen over the past three days. After keeping the state’s daily caseload below the 3,000-mark and Mumbai’s count below 500 for about 20 days, the daily figures crossed these marks in past three days.