The required rate
According to a press briefing by Union minister Prakash Javadekar on Friday, India plans to vaccinate its entire eligible population by December. As against the 238 million doses per month needed for this from June onwards, India appears to be beginning this chase with a slower rate next month with only 120 million doses likely to be available. This means a higher required rate from July: 258 million doses per month for adult vaccination, and 398 million doses per month for universal vaccination.
What are the possible scenarios going forward? In May, 79.4 million doses were available, which is to increase to 120 million in June. This amounts to a 51% month-on-month growth in supply. Assuming the country is able to replicate this result in the coming months, India will have 181 million doses in July, 274 million in August, 414 million in September, and 626 million in October.
All of this would require a massive increase in infrastructure and manpower.
However, once the required rate matches the rate of supply (or scoring rate to use the cricket analogy), one can assume that the pace will be sufficient to meet the December target. This analysis shows that if the supply increases to 274 million per month by August – and stops there – then the adult population will be vaccinated by December. To vaccinate everyone by December, supply will have to keep growing at least until October at 51% per month. able per day (translating to 300 million a month) in July and August – this is twice the highest single day doses administered in India till date (around 5 million). It isn’t clear how the government arrived at this number.
However, even at the rate of 5 million doses a day, it will take till April 27 next year for the country to cover adults and till October 2022 for the entire population.
As stated above, to vaccinate all adults by December, India needs to increase monthly supply to 274 million by August or daily doses to 9.13 million; and to vaccinate everyone,it needs increase monthly supply to 626 million by October, or daily doses to 20.9 million.
UP govt targets to vaccinate 1 cr people in June: Yogi