Young Indians distrust China, Pakistan, trust US; rate Covid and economy as challenges
Foreign policy is considered the domain of the elite, and public opinion on international relations has rarely been documented in India. While there have been efforts to assess public opinion on foreign policy issues, they suffer from limitations due to scope, regularity, consistency, and methodology. There is a dearth of systematic data collection and analysis on how Indians feel about the government’s key foreign policy interventions, India’s relations with other countries, and major global developments. When the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) first conceptualised the foreign policy survey last year, it aimed to build on the existing strand of polling research in India. The idea was to bridge the gap between policymakers and the public. As India frames policies to respond to the geopolitical realities of the 21st century, it must ensure that its policies reflect the will of its citizens. Since around 60% of the population comprises the young, the survey assessed the opinion and perceptions of this demographic.
In December 2020, the poll sampled 2,037 Indians aged 18-35 from 14 cities. It was administered in eight regional languages, and in English.
The urban youth had a positive assessment of the conduct of the country’s foreign policy, with 72% of respondents rating it as either very good or good. While a majority supported the government policies on China, Pakistan and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), the policy with the least support was the government’s withdrawal from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
This demographic felt that the biggest foreign policy challenges facing India were the pandemic, terrorism, the border conflict with China, the climate crisis, and border conflict with Pakistan, in that order. The high ranking of the pandemic is a reflection of the current global health crisis. In terms of foreign policy goal setting, strengthening the Indian economy received the highest priority at 89%, perhaps an acknowledgment of how far the pandemic has adversely affected the economy.
The survey responses on China and Pakistan are illuminating on how young urban Indians view India’s neighbours. The respondents displayed low levels of trust towards Pakistan, with only 10% displaying positive trust ratings. On China, there is a high level of concern regarding its rise as a global power, its growing economic and military superiority, as well as Beijing’s possible interference in India’s neighbourhood. The survey also found that 62% were of the view that India should abandon non-alignment in case of rising Us-china tensions.
Among major powers, China is the least trusted country (77% expressed distrust), while the United States (US) was the most trusted country (77% expressed trust). Resultantly, the government’s recent ban of Chinese mobile apps received the highest level of endorsement (86%), followed by controlling illegal immigration (74%), the Balakot airstrike (68%) and strengthening Quad (64%).
The urban youth displayed a high level of awareness for older multilateral institutions such as the United Nations (UN), and three of every four respondents (74%) felt that India’s quest for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council was a very important goal. Two-thirds of those surveyed said that they had not heard of the Non-aligned Movement (NAM), surprising given that NAM is connected to India’s historical approach towards foreign policy.
The urban youth are deeply divided over the impact of globalisation on India and its economy, society, and culture, their standard of living, travel to and from other countries, and education opportunities overseas. While the opportunity to study abroad is viewed positively, optimism regarding moving abroad is markedly much lower.
This poll has given both predictable and unpredictable results, providing insights into the understanding of Indian youth on critical issues related to India’s foreign policy. This, and future editions of the survey, will help policymakers, academics, researchers —and the public itself — understand and appreciate the importance of democratising foreign policy in India.