Pandemic round 2 & an aggressive Oppn
The three-party MVA coalition government dealt with many political battles even as it consolidated on past lessons to manage the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic
MUMBAI: The year began on a solid note for the Uddhav Thackeray-led Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, which consolidated on its gains — effective pandemic management in 2020 — even as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) remained aggressive Opposition. The three-party coalition government also saw the Shiv Sena move further away from its long-time ally, the BJP, and warm up to Congress. The leadership of Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) made it clear on several occasions that they would remain in the Opposition camp on the national stage, with the BJP in power at the Centre. As we approach 2022, the battlelines are clearly drawn.
Since its formation in November 2019, the Thackeray government was on the defensive, struggling with an unprecedented pandemic and a series of attacks by the Opposition. The problem continued into 2021too. In February, Sena legislator Sanjay Rathod had to resign as forest minister after he was linked to the suicide of a young woman in Pune. In April, the MVA government was dealt a major blow as home minister Anil Deshmukh resigned following allegations of massive corruption. What began as intrigue for the Mumbai police —a sports utility vehicle with gelatin sticks was found outside the residence of industrialist Mukesh Ambani in February — turned into a political crisis for the Thackeray government, as the National Investigation Agency (NIA), the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and the Enforcement Directorate (ED) became involved at different stages of the spiraling investigation.
The NIA arrested assistant police inspector Sachin Vaze, who was known to share cordial relations with several Sena leaders, in the Antilia explosives case; the then commissioner of police Param Bir Singh wrote a letter to the CM and other top politicians making allegations of massive corruption against Deshmukh; a court case eventually paved the way for the CBI to investigate these charges, which led Deshmukh to resign; Opposition leader and former CM Devendra Fadnavis kept the government on tenterhooks with a series of disclosures including one which involved allegations of cash-for-transfer in the state police department. The ED joined the probe against Deshmukh, and issued several summons to him. Deshmukh was finally arrested by the ED last month; on December 29, it filed a 7000-page supplementary chargesheet, accusing Deshmukh and his sons of money-laundering.
All this while, the Thackeray government struggled with a second wave of the Delta variant, as Maharashtra witnessed higher Covid numbers than other states.
“For the first few months, the state was struggling with the second wave of Covid epidemic and the government’s priority was to handle that. After the Covid effect was on the wane, it was important for the government to put normal life and economy back on track. The MVA seems to have done a satisfactory job with it. On the other hand, what was happening on political front damaged its reputation,” Surendra Jondhale, a professor of political science in Mumbai
University, said.
Fight back
According to Jondhale, by the middle of the year, the MVA government began to present political counters.
In the state legislature’s monsoon session in July, the government suspended 12 BJP legislators for a year for “abusing and misbehaving” with the presiding officer in the assembly premises.
The BJP has challenged the suspension in the SC, but the MLAS, Girish Mahajan, Ashish Shelar, Atul Bhatkhalkar , Jaikumar Rawal, Sanjay Kute, Parag Alavani, Abhimanyu Pawar, Harish Pimple, Yogesh Sagar, Narayan Kuche, Bunty Bhangdiya and Ram Satpute, remain suspended.
Sena’s aggressive stand against union minister Narayan Rane was also a sign of this pushback. On August 24, Rane was arrested after he made a remark about slapping chief minister Thackeray. Sena workers staged protests outside Rane’s residence in Mumbai among other places. At a few sites, they even attacked BJP offices. The episode indicated that Thackeray wouldn’t remain defensive if pushed into corner.
The NCP’S Nawab Malik took on the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) when he questioned the presence of two BJP office-bearers as witnesses during a cruise ship drug bust in October. The NCB arrested 20 people in this bust, including Shah Rukh Khan’s 23-year-old son, Aryan. Malik held several press conferences in which he questioned the NCB zonal director Samer Wankhede’s intention behind the arrest. He accused Wankhede of misleading the state in getting his position, and posted a birth certificate which called Wankhede’s religion and his father’s name into question. Wankhede’s father, Dnyandev Wankhede, has taken Malik to court in a civil defamation suit. However, Wankhede’s role in the drug probe case was reduced, following Malik’s allegations.
Earlier this month, the MVA government also decided to reduce powers of Governor B S Koshyari with whom it is locked in a bitter tussle. Even a year after the state government recommended 12 names for vacant seats in the legislative council, Koshyari has not nominated them to the upper house of state legislature. An irked MVA has now decided to reduce his powers in appointing vice chancellors and handling the affairs of the universities as chancellor.
“The political challenge for the Thackeray government remains the same. The Opposition was not willing to let any opportunity to target the government go. The MVA partners seem to have arrived at a consensus that they need to remain together. They have become more confident and asserting themselves now,” said Jondhale.
Sensing this, the BJP has shifted the gears.
“In the beginning of the year, there was uncertainty over the future of the MVA government but as the year is ending now, it seems stabilised. Even Fadnavis told his MLAS that the BJP is not interested in pulling down the government. In fact, the party is preparing for strengthening its presence. The party has also brought the issue of corruption at the centre stage which has the potential to damage Thackeray government’s image,” Hemant Desai, political analyst, said.
The changing equations are clearly visible as both Shiv Sena and NCP have more or less made it clear that they will be in the opposition camp. In fact, Sena has started publicly defending Congress, particularly Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. Earlier, this month, Sena leader Sanjay Raut called on Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi. Both, NCP and Shiv Sena have been insisting that all opposition parties should come together against BJP in the run-up to
2024 general elections.
The year ahead
The year 2022 is full of challenges for Thackeray government. The threat of a third Covid wave with a highly transmissible Omicron variant looms large. The government is not keen on a lockdown but wary of impact if the number of patients shoots up significantly.
The Thackeray government could not succeed in the legal battle for Maratha reservation. On May 5, a five-member bench of the Supreme Court set aside the reservation given to Maratha community (12% in education and 13% in government jobs) terming it unconstitutional. Earlier in March, the top court had also struck down a section in a state law which granted 27% reservation to Other Backward Class (OBC) candidates in local body polls. In December, the SC stayed an Ordinance promulgated by the state government which granted up to 27% political reservation to OBC communities.
The state will hold polls for several municipal corporations, including Mumbai, as well as rural bodies in the first few months of 2022 (unless they are delayed due to a possible third wave). These polls are being called mini-assembly elections as they would serve as a strong indicator of how the local populace feels about its political leaders. A thumping victory would strengthen the MVA, while a good show by the BJP will certainly worry them. The BJP has been blaming the Thackeray government over the reservation issue. With OBCS forming more than 40 % of state’s population, the Thackeray government cannot afford to lose their support. There are also concerns over Thackeray’s fitness — the 61-year-old is recovering from a spine surgery.
“Thackeray’s fitness could be a concern for the MVA especially Sena at a time when local polls are to be held across the state. He is the only leader in Sena with state-wide appeal and the face of the MVA government. His campaigning for the elections will be important for the coalition if they are contesting together,” Desai said.
Desai also pointed out that the MVA partners are speaking in different voices on various issues.
“There doesn’t seem to be a common strategy yet for the local polls or on handling of key issues. They seem to be thinking only about today, not so much about tomorrow.”