Unease in MVA coalition in run-up to council election

All the three allies are fighting their own battles which could lead to trust issues between them

Shailesh Gaikwad and Surendra P Gangan

MUMBAI: There is visible unease in the ruling Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition ahead of the June 20 election for 10 seats to the state legislative council. Days before the crucial election, the MVA is a house divided. Hurt by the defeat of its second candidate in the Rajya Sabha polls, the Shiv Sena has told its allies, NCP and Congress, not to expect cooperation from it in terms of getting additional votes to get their respective candidates elected. As such, both the parties are trying to pull independents and small parties on their side. All the three allies are fighting their own battles which could lead to trust issues between them ahead of the civic and district polls.

In fact the mood in the ruling camp is in sharp contrast to the atmosphere that prevailed prior to the June 10 Rajya Sabha when there was far greater synergy and optimism between the three parties. Following the defeat of Sena’s second candidate, Sanjay Pawar, and the absence of key floor managers, the Sena top brass is aware that a few of the independent MLAS who voted for the BJP are share close ties with certain NCP leaders. In fact, an influential Sena minister was keen on making the Sena’s stinging message to its partners public.

Each of the three MVA parties have fielded two candidates for the council seats. Thackeray has entrusted industries minister Subhash Desai and transport minister Anil Parab with the responsibility of ensuring that both of the party’s candidates are elected and that there be no cross-voting. NCP chief Pawar too held a closed-door meeting with senior party members to stress the same. Wary of a potential loss, the Congress earlier toyed with the idea of withdrawing one of its two candidates but later decided to fight the elections. Senior leader and revenue minister Balasaheb Thorat will handle the task of getting two party nominees elected. The party is wooing a few independents and smaller parties to get the votes it needs for a second seat. There are 11 candidates in the fray for 10 seats and the minimum quota needed for a candidate to get through is likely to be 26 or 27 depending on actual number of MLAS who would be participating on voting on June 20. The state assembly’s strength is 288 but the effective strength is 287 as one Sena MLA died earlier this year. Two NCP MLAS— former home minister Anil Deshmukh and minorities welfare minister Nawab Malik—are in jail in connection with allegations of money laundering. If they can’t participate in voting as happened in the case of Rajya Sabha polls, the number of electors will be 285.

The BJP has 106 MLAS, followed by the Shiv Sena (55), NCP (53), Congress (44), with the rest being smaller parties (16) and 13 independents. In the Rajya Sabha polls held on June 10, the BJP bagged 123 votes and won three of the six seats. Out of the 29 MLAS from small parties and independents, the BJP had managed to win over 17 while MVA got votes of 12. In council, BJP can easily get four candidates elected and would need 12 more votes to get its fifth candidates elected. In the MVA, Sena can get its two candidates elected on its own. Besides, it will have 3-4 surplus votes of independent MLAS.

NCP will need one or two votes while Congress will need 10 votes to get its second candidate elected. As such, a Congress versus BJP fight is expected for the 10th seat. Significantly, for the ruling coalition partners the challenge is not only about winning two seats each but also keeping their flock together. The voting will be held through secret ballot and the coalition leaders suspect that the BJP would poach their MLAS.

“The unease and mistrust can affect our plans for local polls. The outcome of the elections to Mumbai and other civic bodies as well as district councils would be important for future political calculations. If the MVA allies start working against each other, it would lead to BJP sweeping these polls and make a strong bid to return to power in 2024 assembly elections,” said a senior NCP minister about the Shiv Sena’s displeasure about the turn of events during the Rajya Sabha elections. The trust deficit, he pointed out, was also exposed during the election of district council presidents earlier this year when NCP took the help of the BJP to win the poll against Congress.