India can achieve net zero target by 2065-70: Study
India can achieve ‘net zero’ carbon emissions by 2065-70 as its greenhouse emissions will peak by 2035 and if it caps coal usage in the next 10 years, said a new study co-authored by the former vice-chairman of the erstwhile Planning Commission, Montek Singh Ahluwalia. But he said this will also depend on rich countries doubling climate finance to US $200 billion per year in the next few years.
The paper titled ‘Getting Net Zero Approach for India at COP 26’ strongly advocates that India should declare its ‘net zero’ target year at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference or COP 26 starting from October 31 in Glasgow, United Kingdom. It said that India’s traditional argument that it has to emit for its own development no more holds “diplomatic ground” as there are viable non-emitting energy alternatives available.
Net zero is the state in which a country’s greenhouse emissions are removed from the atmosphere by carbon absorption or sequestration.
India is now the fourth-largest emitter after China, United States and the European Union, and as per IPCC’S Sixth Assessment Report released on August 9, it will be among the most severely affected countries. India has committed to reducing the emission intensity of its gross domestic product by 33-35% by 2030 and having 175 gigawatt renewable energy capacity by 2030 under the Paris Agreement of 2016. There is renewed pressure on India to enhance its renewable commitment under the Paris deal to 450 GW by 2030 and phase out coal.
India’s environment minister Bhupendra Yadav, before going for the special UN meeting on climate change on Friday had said that net zero is not enough to keep the global temperature rise
below 1.5 degrees Celsius. He said developed countries need to reduce emissions to provide carbon space to developing countries to exercise their right to grow and eradicate poverty.
“While public announcements of 2050 as a net zero target date helps to focus public attention on the need to reduce emissions, it is important to recognise that having a common net zero emissions date for all countries is not the
best way of tackling global warming,” the paper said. It said net zero target years can be given to countries based on the remaining available carbon budget with the least allocation to G20 (richest) countries, which account for close to three-quarters of global emissions. “A trajectory that gets to net zero by the time committed but exceeds the country’s carbon budget is much worse than following a trajectory which keeps within the budget but reaches net zero later,” the paper written for Centre for Social and Economic Progress said.
Based on the above argument, the paper said that China and Indonesia have already announced that they will reach net zero by 2060. “The studies reviewed in this paper suggest that India could reach a peak around 2035 and get to net zero sometime between 2065 and 2070. We could offer something along these lines at COP 26,” Ahluwalia said in the paper co-authored with Utkarsh Patel, who is an associate fellow at Centre for Social and Economic Progress, an independent public policy think tank.
To achieve the net zero target, the paper said, India needs shortterm decarbonisation targets along with trajectories for the next three decades. The best short term target, the study said, would be a planned phasing out of coal-based power generation as India has already adopted expanding renewable energy capacity to 450 GW by 2030. However, the Indian government has opposed phasing out coal saying it is needed for the country’s developmental imperatives. The paper outlined several implications for phasing out coal, including huge revenue loss for poorer Indian states such as Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Further, these states would lose out on employment, the paper said, as new employment in the renewable sector would be created in western and southern India which has better solar and wind resources.
The close aide of former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, in the paper, strongly argued that India should not commit to a net zero target without enhanced international financial support, saying the IPCC’S assessment of $600 billion per year as the amount of additional energy sector investment needed in developing countries should be the starting point.