Taliban: Two months on, India’s options in Kabul
In the two months since the Taliban captured Kabul, India’s Afghanistan policy has remained reactive and defensive. External affairs minister S Jaishankar conceded as much at a media event on October 8. He said, “We are responding to the situation as you go along. But beyond that, it is hard to take a very definitive position because the situation on the ground doesn’t allow for it”. The minister added, “Things are far from settled in Kabul”.
That is true. Nevertheless, one definite position has emerged. Despite internal fissures, the Taliban is and will remain in control of Afghanistan. That demands anticipation and a proactive policy to safeguard Indian interests. Such a policy must shun both adventurism and unrealistic approaches, and rely on a deep and independent understanding of issues, countries and regions.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi spelt out India’s current Afghan approach, and its hopes, during his remarks at the G20 extraordinary virtual summit on Afghanistan on October 12. While doing so, Modi recalled the close connections of the Afghan and Indian people, and India’s contribution to Afghanistan’s development during the past two decades. In keeping with these sentiments, would it not be appropriate for India to announce a large measure of humanitarian assistance for the Afghan people and route it, for the time being, through international aid agencies? That will be in keeping with the international consensus (including the G20 one) on Afghanistan’s dire need for humanitarian assistance. It will also give additional credibility to Modi’s emphasis on India’s commitment to the welfare of the Afghan people.
One potent form of assistance is to repeat the commitment made in 2002 to Afghanistan — give it one million tonnes of wheat. This can be given to the World Food Programme to be transported via the land route through Pakistan, and distributed directly to the Afghan people. In 2002, Pakistan did not allow the wheat to go through its territory for frivolous reasons though the then Afghan leader, Hamid Karzai, requested Islamabad to do so. Let Pakistan dare to trot out the same reasons now and show its true colours to the Afghan people.
In his G20 remarks, Modi demanded that Afghanistan should be prevented from becoming a source of “radicalisation and terror”. This is one issue on which there is generally an international consensus, though different countries are focused on preventing terrorist groups hostile to them from gaining a base in Afghanistan. Apart from the demand that the Taliban shun terrorist groups, there is actually an absence of common views on the nitty-gritty of the two other demands being made by the group — inclusive government and respect for women and minority rights.
Thus, while Modi called on the international community to “forge a unified international response without which it would be difficult to bring about the desired change in Afghanistan”, Indian policymakers would know that China and Russia are basically pursuing a different path. They abstained in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) from supporting Resolution 2593. Besides, neither Xi Jinping nor Vladimir Putin participated in the G20 Afghanistan summit, while Modi, Joe Biden and other Western leaders did. The group also failed to issue a joint statement. Instead, Italy issued a Chair’s summary.
In the absence of any certainty that the major powers will act together on Afghanistan, it is essential for India to follow an independent policy in keeping with its national interest. Importantly, it should be perceived by Afghanistan and the region to be doing so. India cannot allow Pakistan and China to have an uncontested field in Afghanistan. Despite the close connection of the Taliban and Pakistan, there is space available for Indian diplomacy. Reports are also emerging from Kabul that sections of the Taliban would like to maintain an engagement with India. It is possible that, at a subterranean level, some Indian interaction is being maintained with the Taliban. That is how States can and should act.
There is a need to build on the engagement that began in Doha when the Indian ambassador was authorised to receive Afghanistan’s new interim deputy foreign minister, Abbas Stanikzai. Pakistan will, both directly and through some Taliban proxies, seek to provoke the Modi government through references to the sacking of the Somnath temple by Mahmud of Ghazni and vandalisation of gurudwaras. While condemning these comments and acts, India should be aware that Pakistan wishes to prevent any formal Indian contacts with the Taliban, leave alone an effective Indian return to the Afghan space.
India took the correct decision in withdrawing the embassy in August but it is now time to send a small team back to Kabul. This would not imply recognition. Indeed, no country has done so but that has not prevented them from engaging the Taliban. Of course, full guarantees will have to be taken, invoking Pashtunwali, about the security of Indian personnel placed in Kabul. As part of the process of opening up, the concerns of the Afghan people, including their need to visit India, has to be focused on.
This is a time to shed inhibition and nostalgia and move ahead with realistic approaches on Afghanistan.
Vivek Katju is a retired diplomat who has served as India’s ambassador to Afghanistan The views expressed are personal