States hold the key to unlocking Mandate 2024
The BJP banks on Brand Modi whereas Opposition hopes to gain from confusion among BJP voters restive about new alliances, import of leaders
“We like (Narendra) Modi at the Centre, he is doing an excellent job for India. But what happened to Uddhav Thackeray was also wrong, we feel bad for him,” said a shopkeeper to me in the bustling bazaars of Thane, in Maharashtra. A prestigious seat — chief minister Eknath Shinde is a legislator from here — Thane parliamentary constituency captures all the paradoxes which have made Maharashtra a state that has defied and challenged pollsters and pundits.
Thane is also the seat that saw a spirited battle between allies of the Shiv Sena (Shinde) and the BJP over who should be the candidate. At a shakha bustling with supporters of Shinde, Popatji, his “langotiya yaar” (as he identified himself; the closest translation would be childhood friend) told me scornfully: “BJP has no place here, this is a Sena seat and it will come to us. Else you may as well disband the Shiv Sena.” He was right, the seat did go to them, but not without BJP corporators loyal to the BJP aspirant in the area publicly protesting.
The splits in the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Shiv Sena have created a unique set of regional and local factors that the BJP may not have had to contend with otherwise in a Lok Sabha election. Along with Karnataka, Bihar and Rajasthan, what happens in Maharashtra could well determine the final numbers of Election 2024. Alongside Odisha, Assam, Bengal and Andhra Pradesh. These are the eight states I would watch very carefully.
In my last column, I shared my notes from my travels through India’s southern states. My election road trip — the Dhabas of Democracy — is slowly weaving its way from Kanyakumari to Kashmir and in the last fortnight, I have traversed the length and breadth of Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.
That Maharashtra also had the lowest turnout of states in the third phase of elections speaks to its fragmented politics and the conflict and confusion among voters. The BJP believes that the Modi factor will iron over all cracks and fault lines. The Opposition hopes that a certain localisation of the election has already kicked in. The Modi factor remains the dominant political brand. But it may joust with the sympathy factor in Maharashtra, where two major parties have been splintered.
In the Maharashtra battlefield, even flags and party symbols are difficult to separate and distinguish. At least three of the parties use saffron. I had to sometimes go closer to a rally ora“rath” to ascertain which candidate from which group was driving past. Now, think about the voter’s predicament.
The other factor to look out for is the consequences of importing “outsiders”. Some estimates suggest that nearly 28% of candidates in the BJP list are those who were with other parties before 2014. As the dominant political force, the BJP will invariably be a magnet for other ambitions. However, for an ideologically driven cadre this does create a certain dissonance. Former chief minister (CM) Ashok Chavan, for instance, a Congress crossover to the BJP is facing a tough fight. In particular, workers on the ground who lashed out at Chavan for his alleged role in the Adarsh housing scam or at Ajit Pawar for his role in the irrigation scam, now have to sing a different tune. How this unfolds remains critical for both the BJP and Opposition’s fate.
There is also a certain disquiet — not among BJP voters, but within a section of party workers — over the perceived marginalisation of strong state satraps. In Gujarat, hardly anyone could name the CM. But it did not matter. At street corners and upmarket cafes, it was Modi all the way. But in Madhya Pradesh, those affiliated with the BJP seemed distinctly upset over the party’s decision not to make Shivraj Chouhan the CM. “Mamaji ke saath jo hua, bahut galat hua,” said one young man to me, otherwise a passionate Modi voter. “Unko wapis lana chahiye.” This was a refrain I heard across MP.
Finally, in my last column I argued that the Ram Mandir was not an electoral issue in the southern states. In Madhya Pradesh, like in Gujarat, and even in some pockets of Maharashtra, I saw saffron Ram Mandir flags prominently dotting city and village landscapes. There was a much more visible sentiment for the temple in these states. But not one voter I met brought up the mandir on their own as an election issue.
Mukesh, who runs a paratha stall in Bhopal, one that also displayed mandir flags outside of its shack, said to me: “Ram Mandir mudda to ho gaya, ab khatam ho gaya” (the temple is an issue now done and past us). Again, he also believed that “there is no one in the Opposition who can compete with Brand Modi.” But he wanted PM Modi to speak about jobs and employment above other issues.
It is from these writings on the wall that the final script for 2024 might be prepared.
THE SPLITS IN THE NCP AND SHIV SENA HAVE CREATED A UNIQUE SET OF REGIONAL AND LOCAL FACTORS THAT THE BJP MAY NOT HAVE
HAD TO CONTEND WITH OTHERWISE IN A LOK SABHA ELECTION