India Today

Once booming sectors have cut back on hiring. With recession abroad and policy paralysis at home, young job seekers will find it difficult to get employment.

- By Dhiraj Nayyar and Shravya Jain

The economic slowdown is no longer a mere conversati­onal statistic. It is now hitting the middle class where it hurts most: In jobs. Two surveys, conducted by apex industry chambers FICCI and ASSOCHAM, released in the first week of September, confirm what head hunters and job portals have noticed for months: India Inc’s pessimism about its business prospects, evident now for more than a year, has finally translated into a cut in hiring.

Between April and June 2012, the prospects of finding a job across a range of the most employment- intensive sectors— like informatio­n technology ( IT), financial services, telecom and hospitalit­y— in the economy fell dramatical­ly compared with the first three months of 2012. With recession abroad, and policy paralysis at home, the nightmare for young job seekers looks unlikely to end. The ASSOCHAM survey indicates where jobs will be lost, both in industry and geographic­al terms. Overall, in the 32 sectors surveyed, there is a 20 per cent drop in hiring between April and June when compared with January to March.

The Biggest decline is in IT services, the largest white collar employer, where hiring fell by 31 per cent.

The next biggest decline is in retail: New recruitmen­t fell by 29.8 per cent.

Hiring in hospitalit­y-restaurant­s and hotels— fell 29.2 per cent. In Infrastruc­ture sectors-power roads, ports, airports, which are caught in several Government- induced bottleneck­s, hiring fell by 24.9 per cent.

In the crisis-ridden telecom sector, employment fell by 23.4 per cent. The most startling finding of FICCI’s business confidence survey for the three- month period between April and June 2012 is on employment. For the first time since the quarterly survey was initiated in July- September 2010, of the 150 companies that were studied, a massive 84 per cent expected hiring to fall or remain static. FICCI’s survey expects growth over the next six months to be “jobless”.

The fall in GDP growth to an average of just 5.4 per cent in the first six months of 2012 has cost jobs. There is a massive difference in the number of new jobs created at 5 per cent and 7 per cent, which was roughly the growth rate in 2011- 12. That number is three million. Says economist Bibek Debroy, “At 7 per cent growth, the economy would create 10.5 million new jobs in a year. At 5 per cent growth, it will be just 7.5 million.”

With industrial growth stagnant and agricultur­al growth suffering because of this year’s erratic monsoon, the prospects for the remainder of 2012 look dismal. Even the services sector, the prime generator of jobs in India, is slowing down. It recorded just 6.9 per cent growth between April and June 2012, much lower than the 7.8 per cent that analysts had forecast.

The costs are human. Take Varun Sharma, a 46- year- old from Delhi, formerly general manager of a 4- star hotel in Jodhpur with an annual salary of Rs 14 lakh. He lost his job in January and spent the next eight months looking for a new one. In July, he ended up launching a food and beverage consultanc­y

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