METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted between October 16 and October 26 in randomly selected representative Assembly constituencies across the four states going to polls. While 3,000 voters were sampled in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan each, in Chhattisgarh and Delhi 2,500 and 2,100 voters were questioned. The samples were proportionately allocated to urban and rural areas to get a suitable composition. Similarly, quota samples were fixed to obtain a suitable proportion of Muslims and SC/ST voters. Projection of votes and seats was done by using a proprietary projection model. This model projects the votes and seats for each party/alliance by measuring the shift in votes for each party within the sample (by eliciting answers to questions on voting intention in the present election and recording party voted for last time by the same voters) and extrapolating this shift onto the actual votes polled by each party/ alliance in the referenced election. For the purpose of projections, the 2008 Assembly elections were used as the reference. The findings of this survey are subject to a margin of error of 3 per cent. Mohan Aggarwal be made co-accused in the Rs 54-crore Indira Priyadarshini Mahila Nagarik Sahkari Bank scam. The Congress is banking on the anti-corruption sentiment among voters. According to the poll, 16 per cent voters feel that not curbing corruption is the biggest failure of the state government. Singh admits, “There is an impression that some of our ministers did not perform as well as the others. But as MLAs, they have proved to be good representatives of their constituencies.”
While BJP has strengthened its organisation in the past 10 years, the Congress has been shrinking. Congress was a house divided till a few months ago. Former chief minister Ajit Jogi appeared to be headed towards forming his own party. The high command mollified him with tickets for his wife Renu Jogi and son Amit Jogi. “No doubt, we lost the last election due to divisions, but now our party is united. Ajit Jogi is adding strength to the party and campaigning for all our candidates,” says state unit chief Charan Das Mahant. His party’s manifesto is loaded with populism while BJP hopes Singh’s image will bring it back to power for the third time.