METHOD­OL­OGY

India Today - - OPINION POLL - Fol­low the writer on Twit­ter @jatin­gandhi

The sur­vey was con­ducted be­tween Oc­to­ber 16 and Oc­to­ber 26 in ran­domly se­lected rep­re­sen­ta­tive As­sem­bly con­stituen­cies across the four states go­ing to polls. While 3,000 vot­ers were sam­pled in Mad­hya Pradesh and Ra­jasthan each, in Ch­hat­tis­garh and Delhi 2,500 and 2,100 vot­ers were ques­tioned. The sam­ples were pro­por­tion­ately al­lo­cated to ur­ban and ru­ral ar­eas to get a suit­able com­po­si­tion. Sim­i­larly, quota sam­ples were fixed to ob­tain a suit­able pro­por­tion of Mus­lims and SC/ST vot­ers. Pro­jec­tion of votes and seats was done by us­ing a pro­pri­etary pro­jec­tion model. This model projects the votes and seats for each party/al­liance by mea­sur­ing the shift in votes for each party within the sam­ple (by elic­it­ing an­swers to ques­tions on vot­ing in­ten­tion in the present elec­tion and record­ing party voted for last time by the same vot­ers) and ex­trap­o­lat­ing this shift onto the ac­tual votes polled by each party/ al­liance in the ref­er­enced elec­tion. For the pur­pose of pro­jec­tions, the 2008 As­sem­bly elec­tions were used as the ref­er­ence. The find­ings of this sur­vey are sub­ject to a mar­gin of er­ror of 3 per cent. Mo­han Ag­gar­wal be made co-ac­cused in the Rs 54-crore Indira Priyadarshini Mahila Na­garik Sahkari Bank scam. The Congress is bank­ing on the anti-cor­rup­tion sen­ti­ment among vot­ers. Ac­cord­ing to the poll, 16 per cent vot­ers feel that not curb­ing cor­rup­tion is the big­gest fail­ure of the state gov­ern­ment. Singh ad­mits, “There is an im­pres­sion that some of our min­is­ters did not per­form as well as the oth­ers. But as MLAs, they have proved to be good rep­re­sen­ta­tives of their con­stituen­cies.”

While BJP has strength­ened its or­gan­i­sa­tion in the past 10 years, the Congress has been shrink­ing. Congress was a house di­vided till a few months ago. For­mer chief min­is­ter Ajit Jogi ap­peared to be headed to­wards form­ing his own party. The high com­mand mol­li­fied him with tick­ets for his wife Renu Jogi and son Amit Jogi. “No doubt, we lost the last elec­tion due to di­vi­sions, but now our party is united. Ajit Jogi is adding strength to the party and cam­paign­ing for all our can­di­dates,” says state unit chief Cha­ran Das Mahant. His party’s man­i­festo is loaded with pop­ulism while BJP hopes Singh’s im­age will bring it back to power for the third time.

WHEN FOR­MER CHIEF MIN­IS­TER AJITJOGI (SEATED) AP­PEARED TO BE HEADED TO­WARDS FORM­ING HIS OWN PARTY, THE CONGRESS HIGH COM­MAND MOL­LI­FIED HIM WITH TICK­ETS FOR HIS WIFE RENU JOGI AND SON AMITJOGI. NOW, HE IS CAM­PAIGN­ING FOR ALL PARTYCANDIDATES.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from India

© PressReader. All rights reserved.