THE PARTY HAS JUST BEGUN
Whoever wins on May 16, the two major political parties will not remain the same. The BJP will be recast in the mould of whoever wins. If it becomes the single largest party under Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, it will definitely be a different BJP. The old guard led by L.K. Advani is already in retreat. Jaswant Singh has been expelled for six years, Murli Manohar Joshi has been subtly snubbed on the manifesto, and Advani is nursing his wounds. There was a brief moment where Advani could have shown moral courage and stood by Jaswant Singh, but he blinked in the face of one last opportunity to be relevant—and to remain a possible prime ministerial candidate should Modi fall short in delivering the numbers. The BJP, sensing victory, has already earmarked the UPA chairperson’s office in Parliament for Advani’s projected role as NDA chairperson. Should Modi win decisively, it will be interesting to see how he handles the possible emergence of the Bhopal axis of Advani, Sushma Swaraj and Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. He will also have to learn to balance a very alert RSS and powerful state satraps such as Raman Singh, Vasundhara Raje and Manohar Parrikar. That’s not all. He will also have to deal with Baba Ramdev, who has drawn up a list of five promises BJP leaders made to him and will demand the pound of flesh denied to him in the selection of candidates. As for the RSS cadre, they will be watching very carefully if Modi sheds the Hindu Hriday Samrat image and recasts himself as a liberal to please Delhi drawing rooms.
What of the Congress? A loss will mean the dynasty as the fulcrum will weaken. Only through sheer force of will was Sonia Gandhi able to transform Congress into a winning party after taking over in 1998. There is a lot of loose talk now of how Rahul Gandhi will welcome the opportunity to sit in the Opposition for five years because he wishes to strengthen the party organisation. But after 10 years in power, it will not be easy to keep the flock together. Rahul will have to manage the transition from the old guard to the new order with far more tactical sophistication than he has shown of late. Could some senior leaders engineer a split around which a Congress rump could coalesce? Knowing this, Sonia is shrewd enough to hold out hope for the party faithful that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will one day step up and claim the party—hence Janardan Dwivedi’s pointed remark on what Rajiv Gandhi told him in 1990 which he cannot reveal now. When Indira Gandhi lost in 1977, she fought back by campaigning long and hard (62 days and nights of travelling 1,000 km a day, addressing 10 meetings, which meant that she had been seen or heard by one in four voters). She won 353 seats in 1980 surprising even herself. She took advantage of the disarray in the Opposition to call for nine Assembly elections in May 1980 and encouraged son Sanjay to usher in a generational change, which one newspaper called a cultural revolution. If Congress loses, it cannot even claim comfort in Rahul’s promise of having done things differently. None of the 15 primaries he said would be such a revolutionary step has yielded fresh names. The selection of candidates has been relatively painless compared to BJP but it has not shown any great depth of talent or promise of new leadership.
Down the line other parties too are being tested. M.K. Stalin is clearly in control of DMK but a resounding loss would mean a split in the party. M.K. Alagiri will either use it to oust him from the party or create a splinter group of his own. If Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy does badly, he will have to consider merging with Congress. What will happen to Akhilesh Yadav should his party do badly in the UP Lok Sabha elections? It may further erode his credibility and allow powerful leaders such as Azam Khan and Shivpal Yadav to challenge his inheritance. For many on May 16, the party will be truly over.
WHEN INDIRA GANDHI LOST IN 1977, SHE FOUGHT BACK BY CAMPAIGNING LONG AND HARD. SIXTY-TWO DAYS AND NIGHTS OF TRAVELLING 1,000 KM A DAY, ADDRESSING 10 MEETINGS, WHICH MEANT THAT SHE HAD BEEN SEEN OR HEARD BY ONE IN FOUR VOTERS.