SAFFRON WAVE SWEEPS HEARTLAND
BJP is likely to surpass its all-time record of seats from UP and Bihar in 2014
For a long time, the road to the throne in Delhi ran from Bihar through Uttar Pradesh, the Hindi heartland. Until 1962, the president of India was from Bihar. Eight of the 14 people who have been prime ministers were all elected from Uttar Pradesh, and they ruled India for more than 47½ of the 67 years since Independence.
With Rahul Gandhi, Narendra Modi and Arvind Kejriwal, and Mulayam Singh Yadav fighting the elections from Uttar Pradesh, and Mayawati from Uttar Pradesh already in the Rajya Sabha, the possibility of India under a prime minister from Uttar Pradesh appears to be very bright. Who, we will know only in mid-May.
Among all states, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar—with 80 and 40 out of 543 seats—together send more than a fifth of the members of the Lok Sabha. In 2009, BJP managed to win only 10 and 12 seats from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, respectively. To realise its dream of forming a BJP-led NDA government in Delhi, and accomplish its mission of 272+, it needs to get a lot more than just 22 of the 120 seats. NDA is unlikely to get many seats in the eastern and southern parts of the country in major states such as West Bengal, Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The battle for the Hindi heartland will determine to a large extent who becomes the prime minister in mid-May 2014.
According to the India Today Group-Cicero opinion poll which was conducted during March 29-April 4 among 1,800 and 3,600 respondents in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, BJP is likely to win 46 (±4) seats in UP, and along with its NDA allies, 22 (± 2) in Bihar. The Congress is likely to win 8 (±2) seats in Uttar Pradesh, and
along with its UPA allies, 17 (±2) in Bihar. Dissatisfaction with the UPA Government’s performance and a huge lead of BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi over politicians from other parties was a common feedback from both the states. Almost half the people in Uttar Pradesh and three in five voters in Bihar were unhappy with the outgoing Government’s performance.
Both the states were Congress bastions until 1984, when the party got 83 of the 85 seats in undivided Uttar Pradesh and 48 of the 54 seats in undivided Bihar. In both, its vote share was a little more than a half. By 1998, the Congress was a pale shadow of itself in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. In 1998, it secured only a little over 6-7 per cent of the votes in the two states, and its seat tally was nil in Uttar Pradesh and five in Bihar.
Between 1984 and 1998, as the fortunes of the Congress waned, BJP gained in strength. By 1998, it reached a tally of 57 in Uttar Pradesh (before Uttarakhand was formed) and 20 in Bihar (before Jharkhand was formed), and increased its vote share to 36.5 per cent in Uttar Pradesh and 24 per cent in Bihar. According to the India Today Group-Cicero opinion poll, with a swing of about 17 per cent in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar (for itself and its allies), BJP is likely to surpass its all-time record of seats from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in 2014.
Much of the electoral space that was lost by the Congress in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh was also taken up by regional parties—Rashtriya Janata
IN UTTAR PRADESH, BJP IS LIKELY TO GAIN 19% VOTE SHARE AMONG JATS AND 14% AMONG YADAVS SINCE 2009 LOK SABHA POLLS.
Dal (RJD) led by Lalu Prasad Yadav and Janata Dal (United) led by Nitish Kumar in Bihar; and Samajwadi Party (SP) led by Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh. Then there were parties with sub-regional support bases— the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) led by Ajit Singh in Upper Doab in Uttar Pradesh, and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) led by Ram Vilas Paswan across some areas of Bihar. The opinion poll indicates some major changes in the fortunes of these regional parties.
UTTAR PRADESH
In terms of vote share, SP and BSP have been the top two parties in Uttar Pradesh in the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections. As part of the ‘regionalisation of Indian elections’, these two parties have dominated the politics of Uttar Pradesh for almost a decade and a half. This is quite a remarkable development, given the fact that BSP became a recognised State Party only in 1991, and SP was founded only in 1992 from the disintegrating Janata Dal.
In Uttar Pradesh, the opinion poll suggests, BJP is making a serious dent in the positions of BSP and SP. The BJP’s vote share is likely to go up from 18 per cent in 2009 to 35 per cent. The Congress’s vote share is also likely to go down, but by only 4.5 per cent to 17 per cent. BSP’s vote share is likely to come down by a substantial 9 percentage points, and after being far ahead of the Congress since 1996, BSP is likely to be almost on a par with the Congress both in terms of votes and
IN BIHAR, 47% YADAVS WILL VOTE FOR BJP AND ITS ALLIES WHILE ONLY 29% WILL SUPPORT THE CONGRESS AND RJD.
seats. Consequently, BSP is likely to win only 11 seats, down from 20 in 2009. SP may have to contend with 18 seats, as against 23 in 2009.
BSP seems to have suffered with its support base eroding across caste and religious categories, while BJP has not only consolidated its support base among Brahmins, Rajputs and other upper castes but also secured more support from lower caste categories including Kurmis-Koeris and Jatavs.
Since 2004, RLD has always had pre-poll alliances—with SP in 2004, BJP in 2009—and then joined the victor who it fought in the elections. In 2009, RLD won five seats, mainly from the Upper Doab area. This time, it has an alliance with the Congress and its prospects look grim.
Elections in Uttar Pradesh—a state with a land area greater than that of about 150 countries in the world and population greater than all but five—is a massive affair: 134 million electors will vote for the 16th Lok Sabha in 140,259 polling stations in six phases between April 10 and May 12. With Muslims constituting 18.5 per cent of the population in Uttar Pradesh (2001 Census), the heated debate about the August-September 2013 riots in Muzaffarnagar has compounded an already complex electoral scene. There is some speculation about intensification of identity politics on religious lines and tactical voting.
BIHAR
BSP and SP, the two dominant regional parties in Uttar Pradesh, have supported the UPA Government from outside, but assiduously declined to have any pre-poll seat-sharing arrangements with BJP or Congress in Uttar Pradesh. The pre-poll seat-sharing arrangements for the two regional majors—RJD and JD(U)—in Bihar, have been distinctly different. RJD has had pre-poll alliances with the Congress in 2004 and with LJP in 2009; JD(U) has had an alliance with BJP in both 2004 and 2009. The Bihar electoral scene has got charged with three important developments. First, RJD’s leader Lalu Yadav, convicted in the fodder scam, is out on bail but debarred from contesting the elections. He has struck a seat- sharing arrangement with the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party. Second, JD(U) has walked out from the decade- long alliance with BJP and is burrowing a lonely furrow, except for an alliance with CPI. Third, BJP has worked out a seat-sharing arrangement with LJP and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP).
According to the India Today Group-Cicero opinion poll, both BJP and Congress are going to be major beneficiaries from their pre-poll seatsharing arrangements. The NDA allies of 2014 are likely to almost double their vote share to 38 per cent and bag 22 seats. The vote share of Congress and its ally RJD together is likely to go down by almost 6 per cent, but because of the pooling of votes, the number of seats of the UPA allies is also likely to go up from 6 to 17 (± 2). This is partly because upper caste support for the Congress is being supplemented by OBC support for RJD. JD(U) is likely to lose a quarter of its vote share and be satisfied with 1 (± 1) seat. This is in spite of the fact that JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar is by far the most popular chief minister. But this is a Lok Sabha poll, and Narendra Modi is Bihar’s favourite for the prime minister’s post.
vote-bank politics.
The lack of civic amenities, especially proper roads.
Why BJP has fielded no Muslim candidates in Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat.
There is no doubt that the condition of minorities will deteriorate if BJP comes to power.” Maulana Arshad Madani, Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind president