TACKLING THE THREE SCOURGES
Inflation, lack of jobs and corruption remain the prime concerns, but our survey shows that respondents are not blaming Modi
CALL HIM A TEFLON PRIME MINISTER,
on whom no allegations or charges èver stick, or dismiss it as the good old TINA (there is no alternative) factor. But the india today-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll throws up a curious paradox. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity among the electorate continues to soar to dizzying heights despite the fact that a majority of the voters are seriously concerned about the precarious state of the country’s economy. Inflation is rising, the number of jobs is plummeting, corruption is seeing a spike in the states. At least in voter perception. Surely it is not the economy, stupid! The MOTN survey reveals that voters blame the Opposition UPA and Rahul Gandhi more than Modi for the state of affairs.
Public approval of prime ministerial performance is notoriously fickle, fluctuating from one moment to the next. Barely six months ago, the MOTN survey in February 2016 showed how gnawing economic insecurity, in the public perception, was translating into anti-incumbency sentiment. This was reflected in Modi’s displacement from his high perch of popularity in 2014—from 57 to 40 per cent—and the resurgence of Rahul Gandhi—from 8 per cent to 22 per cent. The MOTN in August signals a return of the Modi wave, with a 10-point surge in his popularity ratings.
While Rahul’s ‘suit-boot ki sarkar’ jibe found its mark so effectively at the time of the last MOTN in February, the sarcastic ‘Arhar Modi’ (following rising prices of pulses) sobriquet seems to have had no effect in the August edition. Nor has the fact that a majority of youth are failing to find employment in a typically inelastic labour market, or that some BJP state governments face charges of corruption.
Inflation, unemployment and corruption have always been the three scourges of governance, something all of our MOTN surveys
have attested to. The income of the poor and unemployed is not indexed against inflation, except for those employed in the formal economy. Any kind of food and fuel price rise hurts them disproportionately. Increased mechanisation and globalisation have made economic growth a largely jobless phenomenon. Greater education of the youth in a jobless economy, therefore, portends disaster, not demographic dividend. Corruption within the political elite, especially at the lower levels, indirectly hurts the poor much more.
Does this increasing concern over economic gloom boil over into public ire against the incumbent? Or, are the PM’s popularity ratings independent of how voters think the economy is doing, his charisma predicated more on how the voters identify with the candidate, overlooking mundane issues of governance? This brings us to the larger question of whether political outcomes in a democracy are quintessentially linked to economic perceptions of voters.
PRICES UP, JOBS DOWN
Consider the current MOTN survey. For 29 per cent of the voters, inflation is the most serious concern, followed by unemployment (22 per cent) and corruption (21 per cent). Have prices risen under the Modi-led NDA regime in the last two years? An overwhelming 67 per cent of the MOTN voters surveyed think that food and fuel prices have increased. Only a minuscule 11 per cent feel prices have gone down. About 22 per cent think they have stayed the same as under the Manmohan Singh-led UPA regime.
And the ground reality? Food prices in India, according to data provided by the Union ministry for statistics and programme implementation, increased 7.79 per cent in June over the same month in 2015. Food inflation in India averaged 8.5 per cent from 2012 until 2016, reaching an all-time high of 14.7 per cent in November 2013.
The electorate appears equally vexed on the issue of unemployment. An overwhelming 61 per cent say that the Modi-led NDA government has failed to create jobs for youth in the country in the last two years. Less than half that number, 30 per cent, believe the government has been successful in the task. Six months ago, 47 per cent had said that the Modi government had failed to provide youth jobs, while 46 per cent felt otherwise. Clearly, a larger number of voters (14 per cent more than in February) today believe that the job situation in the country is deteriorating.
Does the voter’s concern over lack of jobs square with objective data? The BJP-led NDA government came to power in May 2014 with a massive mandate to fix a faltering economy. Although ambitious campaigns like Make in India, Smart Cities and Digital India have been rolled out, the ultimate yardstick with which the success of these initiatives will be evaluated is the volume of jobs they generate. And, if statistics are an indication, it’s an uphill task. Of the 11 million students graduating from colleges each
71% respondents believe that corruption has increased/ remained the same since the NDA took charge
year, only 20 per cent get jobs corresponding to their skill sets. And though women comprise 49 per cent of India’s population, they form only 21 per cent of the overall workforce. The subjective perception of the voters regarding jobs and price rise, therefore, matches with the objective reality on the ground.
POVERTY AND INEQUALITY
Nearly 38 per cent of the voters believe poverty has increased in the country under the Modi regime, only 25 per cent think to the contrary. Thirty-seven per cent feel there has been no change. That makes threequarters of voters who feel there has been no reduction in poverty since the Modi government came to power, a severe indictment of its governance model. Among Dalits, a community the BJP is attempting to appease for electoral purposes, an overwhelming 81 per cent feel poverty under Modi has increased. When it comes to equality, 44 per cent say inequality has increased under Modi rule, only a paltry 10 per cent say it has come down; 38 per cent say it stays the same.
It is on corruption that the gap between government perception and voter belief is the sharpest. While the NDA government boasts it has brought corruption under control, 35 per cent voters believe the demon of bribery has become stronger in Modi era. Thirty-six per cent voters say corruption has remained the same, 29 per cent believe it has eased.
With regard to pollution, 67 per cent voters say air and water quality is a serious concern in their neighbourhood, compared to 24 per cent who say that is not the case. When it comes to prohibition and the beef