WHY HAS MODI’S POPULARITY RISEN 10 PER CENT?

ban, 57 per cent think it’s alright for the government to decide what citizens consume, 28 per cent think it has no right to do so. Given voter pessimism on the economy, why has Modi gained 10 per cent in popularity? There is his personal charisma, of course. A bountiful monsoon too has replaced despair in the countryside with hope for a bumper kharif crop. However, history shows that governments in India are dislodged by two sets of factors: voter ire combined with alternative leadership provided by Opposition parties. Voters turn against the incumbent government when there is a relative decline in their economic status. This coincides usually when the economy is in a tailspin, or if there is a major scam involving government officials. However, unorganised voters, even if angry, can soon disperse if there is no one to rally them.

An alternative leadership from Opposition parties can channelise voter anger into a popular movement directed against the government. Anna Hazare’s movement against corruption in 2013, or V.P. Singh’s crusade against the Rajiv Gandhi government in 1989 or the Jayaprakash Narayanled antiEmergency agitation circa 1975 are a few such examples. The MOTN survey indicates voter alienation and anger over economic issues. However, Opposition leaders have failed miserably in converting this angry voter sentiment into a popular movement against the Modi government, something that has worked to its advantage.