FROM THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
Ever since Partition, the India-Pakistan relationship has been like a rollercoaster ride with more downs than ups. Like sworn enemies, we have fought four wars against each other, and like ‘scar’-crossed lovers, our heads of state have embraced at peace summits that eventually came to naught. Over the decades, there has been great confusion in India about how to deal with Pakistan, a trait that has also marked the Narendra Modi regime.
Soon after coming to power in May 2014, Modi surprised the world by inviting his Pakistani counterpart, Nawaz Sharif, for his swearing-in ceremony. But foreign secretary talks between the two countries were called off after Pakistan’s High Commissioner to India, Abdul Basit, met Kashmiri separatist leaders, before bridges were built again on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Ufa, Russia. There was another breakthrough in Paris when Modi and Sharif met at the COP21 Climate Summit in November 2015, followed by a stunning detour the following month that took Modi to Lahore, highlighting a dramatic thaw in relations. But even as India and Pakistan seemed closer than ever, the attack on an airbase in Pathankot on January 2, 2016, perpetrated by terrorists from across the border, sent the two countries into a stalemate. There was an internal battle raging in Pakistan between Nawaz Sharif and the Army, led by General Raheel Sharif, and China entered the mix later in the year by blocking India’s entry to the Nuclear Suppliers Group to further muddy waters with the ChiPak nexus. This two-year period of frenetic activity reached a flashpoint with the killing of Kashmiri militant Burhan Wani this July, leading to unrest in the Valley, which was just the opportunity that several groups in Pakistan, particularly the Army, were waiting for.
It is in this tense environment that Modi has broken the mould once again, this time by bringing up Pakistan’s western province of Balochistan in his Independence Day speech. Mentioning the region is a huge shift in India’s Pakistan strategy because Balochistan’s long-standing demand for secession from Pakistan has often been painted in an Indian hue across the border. Just as every attack in Kashmir is blamed on Pakistan’s ISI, so is every attack in Balochistan blamed on India’s R&AW. By mentioning the B-word, Modi has touched a nerve in Pakistan, taking Islamabad by surprise and subtly suggesting that if you interfere in our backyard, we could stir trouble in yours.
This new strategy is risky business. There could be serious implications to bringing Balochistan into the Kashmir equation, principal among them losing the high moral ground on cross-border infiltration and opening the doors to international pressure. It is a gambit whose various ramifications must have been considered by New Delhi. If Modi had only spoken of GilgitBaltistan, which he also brought up, his statement may have been viewed as less volatile because India claims it has been forcibly occupied by Pakistan. But Balochistan throws an entirely different spin on what is already among the most unstable regions in the world.
Our cover package examines this new New Great Game. We have ground reports and analyses from Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan. Our lead piece, by Group Editorial Director (Publishing) Raj Chengappa, who has travelled to both provinces over the years, focuses on the sudden shift in India’s approach and makes sense of the tactical and strategic objectives behind it.
The government’s thinking seems to be that the policy of defensive diplomacy has got us nowhere on Kashmir, and it is, therefore, time to up the ante with Pakistan. This is a significant departure from the past. It sends a strong message that India is ready to play hardball if Pakistan does not let up on Kashmir. The rules of the game have changed. Whether this will work is an open question.