DO YOU AGREE WITH THE GROWTH ESTIMATES OF THE BUDGET?
They are achievable if we get normal rains. Our estimate is 7.4 per cent real growth and 11.6 per cent nominal growth in 2017-18
Yes, 7-8 per cent growth and 4-5 per cent inflation are feasible ranges, adding up to the assumed 11.75 per cent nominal rate of growth
The Central Statistics Organisation (CSO) has revised upward estimates for last year. The budget generally uses CSO advance estimates, which are not available. Hence, the basis for the revised estimate stated to have been used is not clear
The forecast for nominal GDP growth (11.75 per cent) may be slightly optimistic. ICRA’s baseline expectation is that GDP growth will improve to 7.2 per cent in FY2018. Factoring in average CPI and WPI inflation of 4.5 and 3.8 per cent, respectively, we expect nominal GDP to expand by 11.2 per cent in FY2018.
Yes. As demonetisation has postponed private consumption demand, one should expect higher private demand in FY18 compared with FY17. Together with this, increase in public investments should help achieve growth targets
I agree. Actual growth could be higher
FY18 growth is likely to hover between 6.5 and 7 per cent
The budget has been quite conservative in projecting growth for 2017-18. Given the uncertainty about global and domestic economic trends, it is hard to give a definitive growth projection
The growth estimates are very much in line with our (Citibank) nominal growth assumptions of 11.8 per cent