HOW TO STITCH A SAFFRON QUILT
THE BJP GETS AN ALLIANCE IN PLACE IN THE HILL STATE, BUT WILL LOOK TO DO AN ‘ARUNACHAL’ TO INCREASE ITS NUMBERS
On March 9, two days before the Manipur assembly election results were declared, Assam finance minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who had been overseeing the BJP’s poll campaign in the state, told india today: “Even if we get 15 seats, we will form the government.” In the event, the saffron party got 21 of the total 60 seats, 10 short of the magic number required to form government. From zero in 2012, it has been a most dramatic rise for the BJP in the border state. Sarma’s confidence seemed to defy logic then, but if there’s one thing the chief architect of the BJP victory in Assam last year knows, it’s how to run an effective campaign. The party already had an informal pre-poll understanding with the Naga People’s Front (NPF), which won four seats in their stronghold, the hill region. It steered clear of a formal alliance, fearing a backlash from the local Meitei population, who are always at odds with the state’s Nagas. During the election campaign, former CM Okram Ibobi Singh sought to exploit Meitei fears about the Modi government’s peace treaty with the Isak-Muivah faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM), daring the BJP government to make public the terms of the treaty. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Rajnath Singh, in turn, personally assured the people that the treaty would not affect the territorial integrity of Manipur. It paid off as the saffron party won 16 of the 40 seats in the valley. It bagged five hill seats too.
The National People’s Party, founded by the former Lok Sabha speaker from Meghalaya, the late P.A. Sangma, and now led by his son Conrad Sangma, is a member of the North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), a political forum of non-Congress parties in the region. Sarma is the convenor of the forum. With NPF and NPP support in its kitty, BJP needed only two more MLAs to stake its claim to form the government. Sarma first got the TMC MLA, Robindro Singh, and then the LJP’s Karan Shyam and another independent. But what caused ripples in political circles was Congress MLA Shyam Kumar switching sides. With that, the BJP tally jumped to 33 and Sarma paraded the MLAs before governor Najma Heptullah on March 12.
Indeed, Kumar could be the first of several Congress MLAs who could cross over to the BJP. And that could explain why Sarma was confident of forming a government even with 15 party MLAs. In fact, this has been the BJP’s game plan right from the beginning—a formula they executed well in Arunachal Pradesh, where 43 of 44 Congress MLAs moved to the party last year. The saffron party knows the NPF can be a tricky partner, especially on the question of creating a greater Nagaland.
Going by the ceiling on the size of state cabinets, Manipur can accommodate 12, including the chief minister. This could be too few for three coalition partners plus sundry others. While the NPF is unlikely to switch sides, the NPP may threaten to join hands with the Congress if it does not get a good deal. Which is why the BJP will look to splinter and absorb a portion of the Congress. Ex-Congressman N. Biren Singh, once Ibobi’s most trusted lieutenant, is to be sworn in as the BJP’s new chief minister on March 15. A few more of his former colleagues will ensure a smoother ride for this footballer-turned-politician.