India Today

Coming up Trumps

- by Dhruva Jaishankar The writer is foreign policy fellow, Brookings India

As Donald Trump completes 100 days as US President, what has it meant for India? The short answer is, nobody knows, not even Trump. But in an era of greater uncertaint­y, it is important for India to identify the key variables triggered by Trump’s election. They relate, essentiall­y, to four broad areas: bilateral relations, the Asian balance of power, terrorism and global governance.

On bilateral relations, when market access, investment, technology and the flow of people are taken together, the US stands out as India’s most important partner for progress. For America, India’s rise presents lucrative opportunit­ies—in infrastruc­ture, energy, financial services and retail. The two countries enjoy an increasing­ly close private sector-led relationsh­ip that encompasse­s IT, biological sciences, space, energy and defence.

This mutually beneficial and reinforcin­g partnershi­p is premised on two things. First, the factors that constitute American exceptiona­lism: democracy, liberal internatio­nalism and immigratio­n. Trump has instead projected America as a more ‘normal’ power, one unwilling to be a model for others, focusing its defence structures on closer, more immediate challenges and conceiving national identity in narrower terms. Additional­ly, the past three US presidents were guided by the strategic logic, as Ashley Tellis put it, that “a strong, democratic, (even if perpetuall­y) independen­t India [is] in American national interest”. This logic informed Bill Clinton’s lifting of sanctions after the 1998 nuclear tests, George W. Bush’s offer of a civil nuclear agreement and Barack Obama’s agreeing to a Joint Strategic Vision with India. While trying to convince Trump of the merits of American openness and the value of a strong India, New Delhi must work with other American actors (including states, legislator­s and the private sector), while seeking alternativ­e partners whenever possible.

The US role as a security provider in the Indo-Pacific is also crucial to preserving a regional balance of power. Trump has offered mixed signals on China, but possible outcomes include a more militarise­d ‘pivot to Asia’ or a policy of calculated unpredicta­bility. Alternativ­ely, Trump may try to broker a power-sharing arrangemen­t with Beijing, or not match his belligeren­t rhetoric with the requisite sources, or engage in a ruinous trade and currency war. Those outcomes would be much less welcome to New Delhi. While evaluating the possibilit­ies of each broad scenario and planning accordingl­y, India must continue its policy of maintainin­g a favourable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. This means doubling down on an ‘Act East’ policy: arming the north along the border, connecting east into Southeast Asia, securing the Indian Ocean to the south, partnering farther afield with likeminded actors, deepening institutio­nal links to Asia and continuing to engage and cooperate with Beijing, whenever possible, particular­ly economical­ly.

Terrorism remains a third major concern. While talking tough, Trump has focused on securing the homeland, defeating ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and countering Iran. India has its own priorities, which place greater stress on cross-border terrorism emanating from Pakistan and, relatedly, on stabilisin­g Afghanista­n. However, the US appetite for counter-insurgency in Afghanista­n has declined, and several factors, including a nuclear weapons programme, have prevented it from addressing Pakistan-based terrorism. Therefore, while India and the US may find greater agreement at the level of first principles when it comes to terrorism, practical cooperatio­n might be complicate­d.

Finally, Trump’s election will have consequenc­es for global governance. Today, India seeks membership of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperatio­n forum; desires a voice and a vote on nuclear, chemical, biological and convention­al weapons proliferat­ion through membership to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (which would cement its 2008 waiver that enables it to conduct civil nuclear commerce); and seeks a permanent seat in an expanded UN Security Council. While the US has supported India’s membership of these forums in the past, it appears a low priority for the Trump Administra­tion. It will have to be seen whether ‘America First’ can ever align with India’s aspiration to be a leading power.

With Trump offering mixed signals in the Indo-Pacific, India must double down on its ‘Act East’ policy

 ??  ??

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from India