THE ALLY THEY ALL NEED
An embattled Lalu Prasad needs him for survival, while the BJP eyes him for its 2019 Lok Sabha run. Why Nitish Kumar is at the top of the pecking order in Bihar’s politics
AAs Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar rose to address the state executive committee of his party, the Janata Dal (United), or the JD(U), during a closed-door meeting in Patna on July 2, he was unsparingly critical of the Congress, a junior ally in his grand alliance government with four ministers in the 29-member cabinet.
“We don’t need to take lessons from the Congress. You (Congress) change your principles, not me”—Nitish’s remark was a counterattack aimed at Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad, who had ridiculed him for backing Ram Nath Kovind, the NDA’s nominee for the presidential election. Azad had indirectly referred to Nitish as a man of “many principles”.
A week ago, Nitish had snubbed senior alliance partner Rashtriya Janata Dal, refusing to consider even Lalu Prasad’s repeated pleas to back the Opposition’s presidential nominee. While Lalu described Nitish’s decision as a “historical blunder”, the Bihar CM remained unperturbed. His party mounted a fierce pushback, with every spokesperson on record warning the RJD of “serious consequences”. JD(U) chief general secretary K.C. Tyagi went to the extent of saying that his party had enjoyed better “comfort level” with its previous ally, the BJP.
With both allies, the RJD and Congress, silenced within a fortnight, Nitish appears to be undisputedly perched at the top of the pecking order in Bihar’s politics. Those who had thought he would succumb to Lalu’s pressure—the RJD has 80 MLAs in the Bihar assembly compared to the JD(U)’s 71—are eating their words.
The recent episode may have brought to the fore the uneasy relationship between Nitish and Lalu, but it has also established Nitish’s pre-eminence in Bihar’s politics today. What gives Nitish the edge is his wide acceptability—the BJP, with 53 MLAs, is willing to support his government should he snap ties with the RJD and Congress. A JD(U)-BJP alliance will enjoy simple majority in the 243-mem-
ber Bihar assembly—a possibility that keeps Lalu in check.
Nitish, who has in the past been a steadfast supporter of a wider, cohesive Opposition, skipped the June 22 meeting of Opposition parties called by Congress president Sonia Gandhi to pick a candidate for the presidential election. Instead, he declared support for Kovind. This was the second time in less than a month that the Bihar chief minister did not attend a meeting convened by Sonia. On May 26, he skipped a lunch thrown by Sonia in New Delhi but made himself available for a lunch convened by Prime Minister Narendra Modi the very next day.
Much to the discomfort of his allies, Nitish has been backing the Modi government’s decisions from time to time. He not only supported the Goods and Services Tax (GST) but even sent party representatives to attend the midnight rollout ceremony in Parliament. Last year, he welcomed demonetisation and the surgical strikes in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and in 2015, Modi’s surprise visit to Pakistan.
With just two years to go for the next parliamentary election, Bihar’s
Arguably Bihar’s best CM. Acceptable to both the NDA and the Opposition
JD(U) is weak organisationally. Inept lieutenants unable to translate Nitish’s credit ratings into votes in other states
Could emerge as Opposition’s consensus PM candidate after the 2019 Lok Sabha elections
Nitish’s ‘principled politics’ cost him friends like Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal
politics appears to be increasingly turning Nitish-centric.
Saddled with mounting legal worries related to the fodder scam investigation and alleged unaccounted-for assets of his family members, Lalu looks vulnerable and dependent on Nitish for survival. At the other end is the BJP—eager to woo Nitish as it looks increasingly difficult for the NDA to repeat its 2014 Lok Sabha tally of 31 seats in Bihar.
Arguably, Nitish would find the RJD and Congress more submissive than a BJP under PM Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah. For them, he only has the limited utility of helping win a few more Lok Sabha seats from Bihar. “To top it all, Modi’s BJP cannot really offer Nitish Kumar anything that he does not already have,” reasons a senior JD(U) leader.
Nitish has already been chief minister for over a decade with no immediate reasons to switch sides unless the grand alliance in Bihar becomes unsustainable. “That could happen if Lalu’s sons, Tej Pratap and Tejashwi, are charged in the ongoing investigation into the alleged unaccounted-for assets of Lalu and family,” predicts senior BJP leader Sushil Kumar Modi. “Nitish may then ask them to resign from the cabinet, which can bring the alliance to breaking point.”
A JD(U) leader counters: “The BJP cannot make Nitish the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate, though he may become one if he continues in the Opposition camp. Nitish’s career has been shaped by pragmatism, fired by opportunities, weathered by years of toil and unblemished by taint. Why would he let go of all this to be on the same side as the BJP?”
In June 2010, while in the NDA, Nitish had snubbed top BJP leaders by cancelling a dinner for them over an advertisement featuring him with Modi, then the chief minister of Gujarat, and another regarding the Gujarat government’s aid for the 2008 floods in Bihar. Eventually, in 2013, in one of his biggest political gambles, Nitish ended his 17-year alliance with the BJP to protest against the elevation of Modi as the
BJP’s campaign panel chief for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. In 2015, his party’s grand alliance with the RJD and Congress dealt a crushing defeat to the NDA in the Bihar assembly elections, together bagging 178 seats.
Many JD(U) leaders—and many more in the Congress and RJD—however believe that Nitish could switch sides once again. “Knowing Nitish Kumar’s temperament and working style, which tolerates neither taint nor interference, it is difficult for him to be comfortable in Lalu Prasad’s company,” says a JD(U) leader.
In Lalu’s case, Nitish has refused to look the other way whenever politicians with a criminal record considered closed to the RJD chief have tried to call the shots. His government successfully challenged the bail to former RJD MP Mohammad Shahabuddin and sitting RJD legislator Raj Ballabh Yadav while he refused to defend Lalu and his family on the issue of alleged unaccounted-for wealth.
Nitish even refused to nominate new chairpersons to various boards and corporations in Bihar in the 17 months of his coalition government primarily because he wished to keep undeserving people out of such posts. “Nitish has never promoted dynasty in politics,” says a JD(U) spokesman. “As a leader of a regional party, he could have easily given key party positions to his brother and son, but he has kept them away from politics.”
A senior leader in Nitish’s party adds that the Bihar CM is very conscious of his image. “He quit as CM after the JD(U)’s defeat in Bihar in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and did not pick anyone from his family to succeed him,” he says. Others in the party feel Nitish’s underplaying of prime ministerial ambitions is purely strategic. He knows that even in a best-case scenario of 20 MPs in the next Lok Sabha elections, he won’t have the clout to pitch for the PM’s post. Though he could still emerge as a consensus candidate from the Opposition camp, Nitish, of late, has been feeling disillusioned with the Congress central leadership.
His followers recall that it was the Congress’s indifference that forced the JD(U) to pull out of the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, where Nitish had fiercely campaigned ahead of the polls seeking to take his party beyond Bihar. They say it was Nitish who made Lalu cede space to let a nonexistent Congress contest 40 seats in the Bihar elections. The Congress won 27 seats, almost regaining its lost glory in the state. Nitish had expected the Congress to return the favour in UP. But with the Congress allying with the Samajwadi Party and Lalu joining the campaign, the JD(U) was left out.
Today, even as Nitish continues to appeal to the Congress to set a coherent agenda for the Opposition, he has largely given up any hope of achieving that goal. He would also be aware that his steadfast support for demonetisation may have cost him friendship with Arvind Kejriwal and Mamata Banerjee, two important regional chieftains.
For now, it looks like F an uneasy truce between Lalu and Nitish, with both making efforts to restore calm and rein in party colleagues. Nitish has even said he will attend the RJD’s August rally against the BJP in Patna. Yet, it could be the lull before the storm. A senior RJD leader, who was restrained in speaking out against Nitish, said the Bihar CM had already crossed the line by ignoring the Opposition’s appeal to support their presidential nominee. And with Lalu and Nitish publicly going against each other on the issue, the alliance is breathing heavy, he says.
Even if ties deteriorate, it will be difficult for Nitish to embrace the BJP. His grand alliance stormed into power in the state with a brute majority on an anti-BJP plank. Prior to severing ties with the BJP in 2013, Nitish had backed UPA nominee Pranab Mukherjee in the 2012 presidential election. This time, the support for Kovind is being described by the JD(U) as an endorsement of the NDA nominee’s impartial and dignified stint as the governor of Bihar.
But is there a bigger design behind Nitish’s move? In May 2013, when Nitish dropped then Union finance minister P. Chidambaram at the gate of the Bihar Congress headquarters in his car, it triggered speculation that he was inching closer to the Congress. Nitish had trashed those reports, but then stormed out of the NDA a month later. That ability to keep his allies and adversaries both interested and uncertain continues to serve Nitish well.