TAMIL NADU: CONTAINING THE CLAN
The ruling AIADMK group is losing ground and credibility. Will the Mannargudi mafia strike?
On September 3, Tamil Nadu chief minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) admitted at a meeting in Thiruvallur, on the outskirts of Chennai, that there were efforts on to topple his government. But he also asserted that it was not possible as long as “true party workers were with him”. He went on to lament the fact that the late AIADMK supremo, J. Jayalalithaa, had not named a political successor but added that it was a positive, for now anyone in the party could aspire “to reach great heights with hard work”.
The ruling AIADMK is sailing in choppy waters today and it will take a lot of hard work to guide the ship back to safety. The Mannargudi clan of jailed interim party general secretary (GS) V.K. Sasikala still holds a
lot of sway. In her absence, nephew T.T.V. Dhinakaran (whom she had named deputy GS) is rallying support among a section of party MLAs to try and unseat the Palaniswami ministry in a test of strength in the assembly. This is also because EPS, as well as deputy chief minister O. Panneerselvam (OPS), are now determined to keep the Mannargudi clan out of the AIADMK. In fact, the party general council meeting on September 12 is to decide on the future of Sasikala and her extended family.
Meanwhile, the EPS–OPS regrouping is itself a bit more tenuous than at the time of their reunion. They can sustain their campaign to be the ‘real AIADMK’ only if they can somehow get back the coveted ‘two leaves’ poll symbol, which was frozen by the Election Commission at the instance of the OPS faction. Prospects are bleak given the legal tangle, where Sasikala, as interim GS, is the respondent (and not EPS or anyone else in the ruling AIADMK). A withdrawal of the complaint made to the EC by the OPS faction would leave the poll symbol issue uncontested and it could go to the Sasikala faction, which is legally the respondent.
The EPSOPS combine is in no position to counter the Mannargudi clan, and Dhinakaran’s earlier warning of activating ‘sleeper cells’ in the ruling group must also be weighing heavily. “The more durable way out is to patch up with the Sasikala faction, as this could go to the courts,” says analyst N. Sathiya Moorthy. “If they do so, this could drag on for a long time, and the symbol may remain frozen.” Also, after watching the intransigence of the recent months, the AIADMK cadre and voters may step back from active politics, like an earlier generation did in the months immediately after the death of party founder M.G. Ramachandran and the subsequent split in the party. A lot of them would still vote for the symbol but they might cease to be the party activists required at election time.
For its part, the rival DMK is waiting for the AIADMK to implode, rather than trigger its disintegration by trying to dislodge the EPS ministry. It stands to gain if the evolving situation leads to fresh elections. DMK working president M.K. Stalin has declared that it will not, at least for now, form an alternative government with the Dhinakaran group.