BATTLE PLANS

MADHYA PRADESH CHIEF MINISTER SHIVRAJ SINGH CHOUHAN IS SERVING UP A WHOLE PLATTER OF SOCIAL SECTOR SCHEMES TO COUNTER ANTI-INCUMBENCY AND WIN A FOURTH TERM FOR THE BJP

Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is laying the groundwork to win a fourth term for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh in 2018

AAt a seemingly routine meeting of top officials he chaired at Vallabh Bhavan, the state secretariat in Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan told those present to ensure that revenue documents to farmers be distributed in an utsav (celebration). Many would have wondered why something that was part of routine administrative work needed celebrating. The politically savvy, however, knew why: if the government could announce it was in election mode without saying as much, this was the way to do it.

Seeking a fourth term for himself and the BJP, Chouhan is aware of the enormous task ahead of him. His biggest strength, however, is the disarray in the Congress and its inability to raise issues, besides his own popularity and targeted government interventions for specific groups.

Social schemes, according to strategists in Team Shivraj, remain the main weapon in Chouhan’s electioneering arsenal in the run-up to 2018. The Laadli Laxmi and Mukhyamantri Kanyadaan Yojana had helped him reap electoral dividends in previous terms. This time he is banking on the Narmada Seva Yatra, the mass contact programme he launched in the middle of last December and which ended in May, covering 70 of the 230 assembly constituencies in 16 of MP’s 51 districts. One fallout of the yatra was the banning of mechanised sand mining, closing down of liquor shops within a five-kilometre radius of the Narmada and proposed sewage treatment plants in 18 towns.

“Chouhan has always focused on the social sector for winning elections,” says veteran political commentator Girija Shankar. “In the past elections, it was bijli, sadak, pani issues. With these addressed, at least in the mind of the government, social sector schemes are being seen as the new vote-getters.”

So, bijli, sadak, pani done, the focus has shifted to roti and makaan. In March, the state passed the MP Economically Weak and Low Income Group Right to Housing Act that aims to provide the state’s financially weak residents the right to a house or land for building one. The state government aims to build 1.1 million houses in rural areas by 2018 and 389,000 this year. In urban areas, the target is to build 500,000 houses by 2018 and 1 million by 2022. Ambitious though the scheme may sound, it could strike a chord among the rural and urban poor. The CM has on many occasions said how his heart bleeds for squatters on government land who are evicted by the administration. While this is a clear message to the administration not to raze illegal slums or evict hawkers and others running commercial activities on government land, the CM has also announced a scheme to regularise illegal colonies saying home buyers in such colonies cannot be penalised for the sins of the builder.

And if the way to the hearts of the poor is through their stomachs, then the Deen Dayal rasoi (kitchen) is doing a good job. Running in all 52 districts of the state, under the scheme 26,000 people on an average are said to be eating a Rs 5 per meal every day.

Chouhan has also announced a Mukhyamantri Medhavi Vidyarthi Yojana under which the state government will sponsor students wishing to pursue higher education in engineering, law, medicine, arts, sciences and commerce in pre-notified colleges outside the state. All students who are residents of MP, whose guardians have an annual income under Rs 6 lakh and have scored over 75 per cent in state boards or 85 per cent in other boards are eligible. Of course, there is a maximum limit to the fee payable. Some 900,000 students appear for the Class 12 exam in MP every year of which an estimated 70 per cent would be eligible for the benefit. A majority of these students would have already got uniforms and bicycles in junior classes. Ergo, the CM will have a captive vote bank in both the students and their parents.

Interestingly, all these schemes cut across the caste divide. The kitchens serve all, the housing scheme covers all and the student’s scholarship scheme is for everyone. It was the same for his previous schemes, be it Laadli Laxmi or the Mukhyamantri Kanyadaan. Chouhan would rather stitch up a broad coalition than target SC/ ST groups as the past governments did.

At the macro level, Chouhan’s campaign pitch will involve speaking about double-digit GDP growth rate in general and the agricultural growth rate in particular, which is expected to clock more than 20 per cent this year. Depending on who is in the audience, Chouhan will also talk of increased power supply and generation, expanded road network and irrigation potential. The one thing he probably won’t talk about is industry because the state’s record on that score remains pretty dismal.

Chouhan also remains popular both within the state and the party. He comes across as earnest, someone whom the public perceives as ‘one of us’. Seen as the liberal face of the party, he is also popular among the minorities. Muslims constitute 6-7 per cent of the state’s population and are present in about 20 assembly segments concentrated in the western and central MP urban areas, where their vote can swing outcomes.

Unlike the earlier governments, Chouhan’s schemes do not target specific caste groups. He’s seeking a broader coalition

Winnability alone will determine Chouhan’s strategy for these seats unlike the tokenism the Congress is believed to indulge in. Right of centre groups, cow vigilantes and the like have a free run in places where polarisation can win seats. However, this is not the case elsewhere where the Muslims have aligned themselves with the BJP leaders in some way.

What the chief minister needs to do most, though, is win back the trust of the farmers, post the agitation that rocked the state earlier this year. The state government has already announced a bhaavantar or price difference scheme. Massive payouts of crop relief are likely, given the deficient rainfall across the state.

While many thought Chouhan might follow Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s lead on prohibition to woo women voters, the CM does not seem keen on the idea. “We’re running campaigns to discourage drinking (see interview).”

What about his plans to counter anti-incumbency? Aware that it might affect his electoral fortunes, the BJP will, based on pre-election surveys, likely deny tickets to at least 20 to 30 per cent of its current MLAs. Changing candidates to counter incumbency is a tactic that has been tried in other states. Some relatives of the MLAs who have been denied tickets may be accommodated to avoid sabotage.

To ensure the smooth distribution of tickets, Chouhan also plans to include a BJP state president who he has a good working relationship with. He would ideally have wanted Narendra Singh Tomar—state BJP president in the 2008 and 2013 elections—but since he is now a Union minister, Chouhan may just have to continue with current incumbent Nandkumar Singh Chauhan.

Chouhan may also capitalise on PM Modi’s popularity among urban voters in the state. However, he needs to reassure BJP workers that the bureaucracy is not riding roughshod over them—an oft-repeated allegation in MP.

His best bet, however, is the divided house the Congress is in MP. The faction-ridden party has failed to make political capital on issues such as the high fuel prices, large-scale corruption on the ground and issues plaguing the agricultural sector such as the withdrawal of bonus to wheat farmers when neighbouring Chhattisgarh has reintroduced it for paddy farmers. Chouhan’s strategy—if he has that sort of reach within the Opposition—would be to keep the Congress divided. How he will counter the Congress offensive—be it through his kisan putra versus maharaja pitch or by raking up pre- 2003 bijli, sadak and pani indices—will depend on how the Congress resolves its leadership issue. “The CM paints a rosy picture of tomorrow and makes people forget what he had promised but failed to deliver in the past,” says leader of the Opposition, Ajay Singh. “Fortunately for him, till the last elections, people had a short-term memory. This won’t be the case in 2018.”

Indeed, were elections to be held today, Chouhan would be in an enviable position. But there is still a year to go, and the battlehardened veteran knows all this could well change. The challenge before him is to maintain status quo till the end of next year. Will he be able to pull it off?