LALOO’S CONVICTION, RJD’S END?
With the Gujarat verdict falling short of expectations and acquittals in the 2G case almost knocking the sails out of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign against corruption, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s conviction will surely provide fodder for the BJP to corner its rivals in Bihar and elsewhere. What will it mean for the Rashtriya Janata Dal, though? Is it time to write an obituary for the RJD’s version of subaltern politics?
Lalu’s personal parliamentary career ended in September 2013— his first conviction in the fodder scam cost him his seat in Parliament and made him ineligible to fight elections. He faces a second conviction at a time when, after being dumped by Nitish Kumar, he needs to consolidate the RJD’s support base. The latter’s JD(U) is working overtime to woo Bihar’s 16.5 per cent Muslims, while the BJP is trying to win over the Yadavs, who, at 15 per cent, are the state’s single largest caste group. The 69-year-old RJD chief had just started sending out feelers to OBC leaders to expand and consolidate his party’s Muslim-Yadav vote bank. The BJP and JD(U) have joined
hands and the elections in Bihar will now be a direct fight between two political entities. Lalu remains a mass leader and this was the time when his party needed him the most. This is Lalu’s eighth visit to prison and he knows that the longer he stays in jail, the bigger the electoral worries for his family and party will be.
Just as he walked to the court room of CBI Special Judge Shivpal Singh on December 23, Lalu stopped to hold the hands of his younger son and heir apparent Tejashwi and said: “Dekhte rehna, khyal rakhna (Take care and look after the family and party).”
It seems that even before the judge pronounced him guilty at 4 pm, shortly after acquitting six other accused, including former Bihar chief minister Jagannath Mishra in the case, Lalu had lost all hope. Hours after the verdict, the baton was formally passed to Tejashwi, as RJD leader Jagdanand Singh made an announcement that the “battle for social justice will continue under the leadership of Tejashwi Prasad Yadav”.
The judgment was delivered in RC 64A/96 case relating to the withdrawal of Rs 89.27 lakh against an allotment of Rs 4.73 lakh using 250 vouchers and 17 fake allotment letters between 1991 and 1994 from the Deoghar district treasury. The fodder scam relates to fraudulent withdrawal of Rs 900 crore by the animal husbandry department from various district treasuries in the ’90s, when Lalu was the CM. The CBI has charged him with criminal conspiracy in five cases.
Being the chosen successor, Tejashwi, a former deputy CM, apparently commands some respect due to his measured and mature politics, but has a long way to go before stepping into his father’s shoes. His elder brother Tej Pratap, on the other hand, seems to have a confrontational approach. With Lalu behind bars, the duo will have to manage 80 legislators. The party may be prone to defections and even a split; Lalu is still central to its strategy. “We will go to the court of the people of Bihar and tell them how my father was falsely charged,” Tejashwi said in Patna. The aim is clear—to whip up sympathy in favour of Lalu and sons.
In the past, a stint in jail has boosted Lalu’s career— the way it did after the Emergency when he won his first Lok Sabha elections. Today, however, the story is different. With the state government allowing only three persons to meet him in a week, Lalu will have to work out a strategy to keep his party together while being away from the political arena. It remains to be seen whether or not subaltern sympathy will save his party.
With Lalu behind bars, his party, the RJD, may become prone to defections and even a split