At Home Abroad
The Modi government gets kudos for its handling of Pakistan and China, but cross-border terrorism and local insurgency remain threats
ONE OF THE biggest foreign policy successes of the Narendra Modi government came to pass on October 30 last year when it dispatched a 1.1 million tonne grain shipment to Afghanistan. The shipment sailed from Kandla port in Gujarat in six tranches and was unloaded at Iran’s Chabahar port at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. From here, the shipment travelled by rail and road to reach Afghanistan just over a week later. The port, road and rail network built under a $500 million project by India has, for the first time, allowed it to bypass Pakistan, opening up a new route to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Islamabad has been similarly bypassed in New Delhi’s diplomatic outreach as it seeks to enforce its ‘talks and terror don’t go hand in hand’ official line.
Relations with Pakistan have been on the backburner since the January 2016 terror attack on the Pathankot air base and the September 18 Uri attack
the same year, in which 18 soldiers were killed. The first attack saw a freeze in ties, the second cross-border raids on Pakistani terror camps by Indian commandos.
The Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll endorses the government’s tough line on Pakistan—67 per cent respondents feel the Modi government has handled relations with Pakistan satisfactorily or handled them well, up 3 percentage points since the last MOTN survey in July 2017. Cross-border terrorists (33 per cent) and domestic insurgents (21 per cent) continue to be the biggest threats to internal security.
There have been no high-level exchanges between the two countries and no unfreezing of relations between the two sides for various reasons. Cross-border terrorism continues unabated, Pakistan’s civilian political leadership is in turmoil as it heads towards a general election this May. The capture and trial of an alleged Indian spy, Kulbushan Jadhav, by Pakistan sparked off an unprecedented appeal by New Delhi at the International Court of Justice. When Donald Trump signalled a cut in US military aid to Pakistan on January 2 over its double standards on fighting terrorism, India saw this as
vindication of its stance on Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir. Significantly, 54 per cent of the respondents feel India’s relations with the US have improved under Trump.
The Line of Control in Kashmir and the International Boundary in Jammu region have been volatile since the 2016 surgical strikes. The official figure of 860 ceasefire violations by Pakistani troops in 2017 is almost four times the 221 violations the year before. At any other time, the statistics would be cause for concern for any government and fuel public alarm. But the popular perception is positive.
Forty-nine per cent respondents feel the government has handled the situation in Jammu and Kashmir successfully, up by 7 percentage points since the August 2017 MOTN. An indication that the government was warming up to talks with the disaffected parties in Kashmir came last November with the appointment of former Intelligence Bureau chief Dineshwar Sharma as the interlocutor for Kashmir. Thirty-six per cent respondents consider Sharma’s appointment a good move, but an equally large number—nearly 34 per cent—say it won’t change things.
Last June, Indian and Chinese troops stood eyeball to eyeball on the Doklam plateau in Bhutan close to the Indian border. India had objected to the construction of a road by Chinese troops towards a ridge on the Indian side. The situation was resolved nearly three months later on August 28 when Chinese troops pulled back. Coming just ahead of PM Modi’s visit to China to attend the BRICS summit, it was seen as a major victory for India’s foreign policy. A majority
of MOTN respondents (42 per cent) think India’s relationship with China has improved despite Doklam.
Other internal security issues like violence in the name of cow protection where minorities have been targeted, remain burning issues—5 per cent think it is of concern, up by 1 percentage point since the last MOTN (July 2017).
Maoist violence registered the sharpest drop in internal security concerns. Only 3 per cent respondents believe they were a threat as opposed to 16 per cent last July. This decline is possibly explained by the decrease in levels of Maoist violence since the killings of 40 security personnel in the first half of 2017. There was a dip in threat perception from mafia too, from 10 per cent to 3 per cent this year, possibly a post-Punjab election phenomenon where drugs formed a major poll plank. Asked about issues that concerned them the most, MOTN respondents put terrorism at the bottom of the list. Just 2 per cent deemed it a serious concern.
Prime Minister Modi reiterated that terrorism (read, Pakistan-sponsored terror) will continue to be a priority for his government—‘no good and bad terrorists’ as he said. Getting a grip on the lunatic fringe is going to be an equally major internal security challenge for the government in the months ahead as it projects India as a safe investment destination. Miscreants ran riot, torching vehicles and attacking a school bus in Gurugram just 48 hours before India was set to host 10 ASEAN leaders for the annual Republic Day parade. The big foreign policy challenges include managing two important relationships, with Beijing and Washington, to leverage India’s position as the world’s fastest growing economy and attract foreign investment, as well as offering a credible alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.