WATCH OUT, MR MODI
He remains the frontrunner for PM in 2019, but a slide in his government’s popularity suggests that an opposition alliance could threaten the NDA majority
While his individual popularity remains intact, the BJP and NDA have slipped. Can the PM reverse the trend before Lok Sabha 2019?
RIGHT FROM THE BIRTH OF INDIAN PHILOSOPHY, there has been a quest to understand the great duality of existence. The complex interplay between the positive and negative forces of nature. Between life and death. Good versus evil. The Chinese described it as Yin and Yang and strived to achieve a dynamic balance between contrarian forces. The Bhagvad Gita advocates two paths towards moksha—sanyas yoga, which demands abstinence from worldly pleasures and focuses on meditation and inner realisation; and karma yoga that affirms life and calls upon individuals to perform their dharma without fear or favour, always being right in thought and action.
As Narendra Modi enters the final year of his tenure as prime minister, he exhibits all the characteristic traits of this puzzling Indian duality. There is Statesman Modi who was in full flow at Davos where he earned his place at the high table of world affairs by making a fervent plea to battle climate change, fight back rising protectionism and wage a global war on terrorism. He also positioned himself as India’s Great Reformer by promising foreign investors stability, predictability, openness and the rule of law apart from opening up key sectors for investors. Back home, he projected himself as the Messiah of the Poor with his numerous welfare schemes for the poor and the Slayer of the Corrupt with his demonetisation drive.
Then there is Politician Modi whose win-at-any-cost approach has come under increasing flak. To maintain his party’s political momentum, he has allowed its president Amit Shah, his alter ego, a free hand to engineer defections and even polarise voters if needed. The recent Gujarat poll is Exhibit A. That Sangh Parivar fringe elements have
been allowed a free hand to take law into their own hands on issues such as love jihad, beef ban and the release of Padmaavat is Exhibit B. That as prime minister his criticisms of such forces have been just too few and far between is Exhibit C. And that the BJP is now in power in 19 out of India’s 29 states, some through questionable means, is Exhibit D.
The india today-Karvy biannual Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll reflects the great duality Narendra Modi has come to represent. He is still seen by over half of those surveyed as best suited to be prime minister again in 2019. But if elections are held now, the BJP would fall short of securing a majority on its own and would have to rely on its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners to stay in power. The poll also shows that NDA’s tally would drop by 51 seats from the peak of 360 it reached in January 2017 to 309. The BJP’s total that crossed 305 in the same period has now dropped to 264 seats—eight short of a simple majority. The Congress gains by doubling its tally from 34 to 69 seats but is still too far behind to pose any formidable challenge.
There is plenty in the MOTN poll that Modi could draw comfort from. Sixty one per cent of those polled still rate his performance as prime minister as between good and outstanding.
(That number, though, has steadily dropped from the peak of 69 per cent he enjoyed during the demonetisation drive). The prime minister would be happy that his Swachh Bharat Abhiyan is now regarded as his government’s single biggest achievement. However, if you add the score of the three perceived anti-corruption achievements—crackdown on black money, demonetisation and a scam-free government—these are seen as by far his biggest successes. Modi should also be pleased with himself that over 50 per cent of those surveyed believe that he has delivered on the ‘sabka saath, sabka vikas’ slogan.
Now for the flip side. There are some demographic fundamentals that these MOTN surveys throw up that have become a bellwether for performance. Poll after poll has shown that the three biggest concerns of the public are: combating corruption, providing jobs and controlling prices. In exceptional years, when there is internal strife, external aggression or a major terror attack, then security joins the list of top worries. While the Modi government’s performance on corruption is rated high, on two other major areas—providing jobs and controlling prices—it gets a clear thumbs down. Almost 45 per cent of those polled list these two issues as the biggest failures of the Modi government. What is even more worrying for the prime minister is that one-fourth of the people think his handling of farmer suicides and agrarian distress has been poor.
These are clear warning signals for the prime minister. This is the second consecutive poll that reflects both BJP and NDA numbers declining. It indicates the slippery slope ahead for the ruling dispensation that the prime minister has to success-
fully navigate if he has to ensure his re-election. In the past, MOTN polls held just before a government enters its final year have had an interesting message. In the February 2003 MOTN, when Atal Bihari Vajpayee was at the helm, the survey showed that the BJP-led alliance was heading for a win. But within a year, the BJP frittered away its advantage and lost the 2004 general election. In 2008, just before the final year of UPA-I, the MOTN survey showed the ruling coalition was still ahead of the NDA alliance in numbers. UPA-I went on to win a second term. In 2013, however, a year before the 2014 general election, UPA-II was in the doldrums and the NDA was surging ahead. UPA-II failed to regain ground and went on to suffer a humiliating defeat.
In this MOTN poll, the UPA in its current avatar poses no great challenge to the ruling NDA as its tally remains at 102 seats. But Modi cannot be complacent. The recent Gujarat polls were a clear indication that if the Congress formed alliances, it could threaten a BJP bastion. What this MOTN exercise does throw up is that Rahul Gandhi, after being elected Congress president, has once again become the prime challenger to Modi’s dominance. He is also seen as the best bet to lead a mahagathbandhan in the survey. If Rahul is able to persuade Mamata Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati to enter into an alliance with the Congress, then the MOTN predicts a hung Parliament were polls held today, with the NDA dropping to 258 seats. The real test for the prime minister in the months ahead will be his ability to deliver on economic growth, generating employment and keeping inflation down. Already the political gains of demonetisation seem to have been whittled away, with a growing number of those polled believing that black money is back in circulation and corruption is on the rise. This may not be a reflection on the prime minister, as his personal integrity has never been in doubt and his government has so far been scam-free. But it seems to have more to do with the perception that state-level corruption, particularly in the delivery of essential goods and services, hasn’t diminished. And the BJP has no excuse now as it has formed governments in a substantial majority of states in the country.
After the twin shocks of demonetisation and GST, the economy is showing signs of recovery, but GDP growth remains below the 7 per cent mark. The government maintains that employment has picked up, but figures to back such statements remain sketchy. Private investment remains
sluggish as does industrial growth. Agrarian distress and farmer anger is palpable, and the government is clearly on the back foot when it comes to providing relief measures. Worse, with oil prices beginning to rise, the cushion the government has had in the past three years of low prices is beginning to wear thin. Inflation is on the rise again. The coming Union budget offers the Modi government its last big opportunity to address some of these issues. But the Modi government faces a dilemma between going populist and spending big on welfare measures, or pursuing a reforms agenda and maintaining fiscal discipline.
This duality in choice is something that Modi has had to constantly contend with right through his term. If the prime minister tilted too much towards business, he was accused of running a suit-boot ki sarkar and if he went pro-poor and pro-farmer, he was criticised for pandering to vote banks and abandoning the growth path. To Modi’s credit, he remains unafraid to take risks and no one can accuse him of paralysis of action—something the MOTN endorses. He is ever willing for course correction as he showed with GST rates. And his repeated emphasis on focusing on development rather than on divisive issues makes him still the best bet to be prime minister of the country. Given the slew of reform measures and schemes he has introduced since he took charge as prime minister, there are three things he needs to focus on in the remaining year of his tenure: Delivery, Delivery, Delivery.