A FAMOUS VICTORY
Sachin Pilot engineers a Congress resurgence in the state bypolls, but what will worry the BJP more is the massive margins by which it lost
Perhaps more than its own defeat, it is the Congress’s resounding margins in all the 17 assembly segments included in the three (two Lok Sabha and one assembly) by-elections that has left the Vasundhara Raje-led BJP government shellshocked here. While the surprising numbers secured by the Congress—some 700,000 voters have shifted to the party in the past three-and-a-half years—reflect the disillusionment with the BJP state government, they also point to a calibrated political strategy executed by state Congress chief Sachin Pilot. Allowed a free hand by party president Rahul Gandhi since the 2014 defeat, young Pilot has travelled an astonishing 500,000 kilometres crisscrossing Rajasthan to resurrect the party. Apart from the countless worker meetings and political rallies in the remotest corners of the state, Pilot used the time to even put in an appearance at local weddings and funerals. The huge connect he’s been able to build allowed the Congress to do what was hitherto the RSS-backed BJP’s forte—booth-level management that accounted for each and every voter in Alwar, Ajmer and Mandalgarh.
And while he did that, Pilot, a Gujjar, went out of his way to involve representatives from other castes, particularly young first-timers, including nominees of veteran Congress leaders. Former chief minister Ashok Gehlot’s son Vaibhav, for instance, was inducted as a general secretary. Even the winning candidate Pilot backed from Ajmer was a known Gehlot loyalist, Raghu Sharma. The strategy first paid dividends in the local body elections in early 2015 when Congress captured a chunk of the seats, many with growing support from the dominant Jat and Meena communities as well as the Dalits. “We could sense the Dalits slipping away from us,” says state BJP president Ashok Parnami, admitting the Congress capitalised on the Dalit atrocities of the last few years (like the 2015 incident where the Jats had mowed down a group of Dalits with a tractor in Nagaur).
But there was clearly more to it. Under Pilot, the Congress also successfully highlighted the Raje government’s failures and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s bruising moves on demonetisation and the GST. Pilot cited the lack of bureaucratic accountability, rising corruption and the appalling state of civic amenities— roads, traffic and public transport—to show that Raje was no longer a firm administrator. His party also hammered home her failure to deliver on promises like the 1.5 million jobs for the youth, and the rising crime and growing sense of insecurity among the minorities.
Raje and the BJP’s core group met in Jaipur on February 2 and later admitted that the “people have turned against the party”. The national leadership too says there’s need for “drastic surgery” within the Rajasthan unit and the state government. Although no one seems clear on what this entails, BJP president Amit Shah says “we’ll analyse the results and take appropriate corrective steps”.
Analysts say Raje’s protege and state president Parnami will be a certain casualty. He may get a ministerial berth or a Rajya Sabha seat though the man himself said on February 6 that no one had asked him to quit. As for Raje, neither Modi nor Shah has ever had an easy relationship with her, but party insiders say replacing the chief minister may not be an option given her proximity to several senior leaders, including Rajnath Singh, Nitin Gadkari and even finance minister Arun Jaitley. Also, Raje herself is certain to vehemently oppose Om Prakash Mathur and Union minister Arjun Ram Meghwal, the two names in circulation as possible replacements. The Modi-Shah duo is unlikely to risk a crisis so close to the all-important Lok Sabha polls.
Short of removing Raje, the BJP’s course correction in Rajasthan is certain to include a large-scale reshuffle of the state cabinet, the bureaucracy and the state unit. And this, senior leaders say, will include the dropping of ‘old favourites’ and induction of many faces the chief minister has so far spurned. “The Rani will no longer have the luxury of being inflexible,” says a BJP leader seeking anonymity. Back in the jubilant Congress camp, Pilot chooses his words carefully. “We have done very well. But this is just the beginning, a long battle lies ahead,” he says.
Raje and the BJP’s core group later admitted that the “people have turned against the party”