WHILE THE BIG GUNS FIGHT...
The infighting in the BJP, Congress has the JD(S) dreaming big
AMID CONTESTING CLAIMS by the ruling Congress and the BJP, the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD(S)) could emerge as the dark horse—gaining traction as election day draws closer in Karnataka. Encouraged by the rebellions in the rival camps following ticket allocations, JD(S) leaders are now saying the party could even cross the 50-seat mark in the 224-member state assembly. If that happens (as it did in 2008 when JD(S) won 58 seats), the Congress and BJP will invariably be forced to vie for a post-poll alliance with the JD(S).
Analyst N.L. Prakash, a Mysuru University scholar, agrees that the JD(S), headed by former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda, has been “growing in strength”. Neither of the two national parties, he says, is in a position to offend the regional party any longer.
In fact, the perception that the JD(S) was regaining pre-eminence in its erstwhile stronghold of Old Mysuru was what prompted Chief Minister Siddaramaiah to file a second nomination from Badami (in addition to Chamundeshwari in Mysuru). The central Karnataka constituency, with a big section of the CM’s Kuruba (OBC) community, is seen as a ‘safer’ seat for him.
But A. Veerappa, a Bengalurubased analyst, believes Siddaramaiah’s decision to contest in two seats will backfire and “consolidate votes in favour of the JD(S)
elsewhere too”. The fact that a number of Congress rebels, like Prasanna Kumar, P. Ramesh, L. Revannasiddaiah, H. Vishwanath, Shashikumar and Altaf Khan, made a beeline for the JD(S) after being denied tickets lends credence to this view.
And it’s not just the Congress. A number of BJP rebels too, including Prakash Khandre, former minister Revu Naik Belamaggi, Hemachandra Sagar and G.H. Ramachandrappa, have declared their allegiance to the JD(S). The influx from the Congress and BJP is clearly good news for the regional party. “I am happy with the faith reposed by these leaders in our party,” says Deve Gowda.
The infighting among its rivals could help the party gain four seats in central Karnataka in addition to the six it has held since 2013. In Shikaripura, for instance, the BJP’s chief ministerial candidate B.S. Yeddyurappa faces a bigger challenge from the JD(S)’s H.T. Baligar than from the Congress municipal councillor nominee. But it is Old Mysuru (59 seats) where the JD(S) is likely to make the biggest gains. The party is confident of vastly improving its 2013 tally of 25 seats. Former CM and JD(S) state president H.D. Kumaraswamy is contesting from two neighbouring constituencies— Ramanagara and Channapatna. But unlike with Siddaramaiah, it’s an assertion of his party’s supremacy in the region.
Party insiders say the JD(S) is keeping its post-poll options open. Most analysts believe that should both the BJP and Congress fall short, Kumaraswamy will seek the BJP’s support to form government with himself as chief minister. A JD(S) leader suggests such a scenario would also “meet the BJP’s ambition of creating a Congress-mukt Bharat”.