A MANDATE FOR CHANGE

BIG GAINS IN OLD MYSURU, THE COASTAL BELT AND THE MUMBAIKARNATAKA REGION, AND A HOLD ON THE DALIT-TRIBAL-OBC VOTE TURNED AROUND THE BJP’S FORTUNES AND SANK THE CONGRESS

THE BJP’S DALIT VOTE JUMPED FROM 5 PER CENT TO 40 PER CENT; ITS OBC VOTE MOVED UP FROM 7 PER CENT TO 52 PER CENT

IN A MAJOR REALIGNMENT OF THE electoral map, the BJP has made significant gains in Karnataka, winning 104 out of the 222 declared seats, mainly in the rural strongholds of the Mumbai-Karnataka region in the north and coastal areas of Old Mysuru and coastal Karnataka in the south. Despite popular votes almost 2 per cent lower than of the Congress, the BJP, with its concentrated vote base among the Lingayats, Dalits, tribals and the OBCs, managed to better its strike rate considerably compared to 2013, when a faction-ridden party had won barely 40 seats. However, it fell short of the majority mark.

In sharp contrast to the saffron surge in 2018 is the Congress’s rout. The strong anti-incumbency wave that unseated the Siddaramaiah government cost the party 44 seats, reducing its 2013 tally to a mere 78 seats. Although the Congress increased its vote share to 38 per cent from 36.6 per cent the last time, its tally came down due to an even scatter of votes throughout the state. The Janata Dal (Secular), which has formed a post-poll coalition with the Congress in an attempt to form the government, almost held on to its 2013 tally, down just three seats at 37. But the party suffered a vote share loss of almost 2 per cent—from 20.2 per cent in 2013 to 18.3 per cent in 2018.

The BJP’s gains reflect the party’s inroads into new territory and a return to grounds that had been lost in 2013. The party managed to retain its Lingayat bastion, a crucial 17 per cent vote, despite attempts by the Siddaramaiah government to divide the community with the help of Veershaiva seers by granting it minority status. Around 61 per cent of the Lingayat vote went to the BJP, 20 per cent to the Congress (down from 48 per cent in 2013) and only 9 per cent to the JD(S).

Of the 15 per cent Vokkaliga vote, a majority—63 per cent—went to the JD(S) while the BJP and Congress secured 19 per cent and 11 per cent votes respectively. The BJP made big gains among OBCs, Dalits and tribal communities, decimating the support of AHINDA (an acronym for minorities, backward classes and Dalits), carefully cultivated by Siddaramaiah.

The Congress’s loss has largely been the BJP’s gain. In addition, the BJP wrested 20 of the 22 seats won by independents in 2013. The Congress was routed in MumbaiKarnataka, coastal Karnataka

and Old Mysuru. Although the party managed to retain its Muslim base and support of the Kuruba community, to which Siddaramaiah himself belongs, it lost significant support among Dalits, tribals and OBCs. In the reserved seats, the Congress secured a higher vote percentage, but won only 12 seats compared to the BJP’s 16. The JD(S) retained its Vokkaliga base in Old Mysuru, but lost some Muslim votes to the Congress.

The Congress got its biggest drubbing in the 50-seat Mumbai-Karnataka region. The party had swept the region in 2013, winning 31 seats. It barely managed to retain 17 seats this time. The BJP more than doubled its tally, from 13 in 2013 to 30 in 2018.

In the Hyderabad-Karnataka region, which has 40 seats, the BJP trebled its tally to 15 from the last election. Most of its gains were seats won by independents in 2013. The Congress, with 21 seats, largely retained its base, down just two seats from 2013. The JD(S) won four of the five seats it had won the last time.

Old Mysuru, with 62 crucial seats, witnessed a triangular contest between the JD(S), BJP and Congress. Drawing support primarily from the prosperous Vokkaliga community, the JD(S) increased its tally by four seats to 27. The Congress lost one-third of its seats, down to 20 from 30 seats in 2013. The BJP, which won just five seats in 2013, notched wins in 16 seats, mostly in the coastal areas. The BJP even won in Hassan, Deve Gowda’s family base.

The BJP swept the religiously polarised coastal Karnataka, winning 16 of the 19 seats. It had won just three seats from here in 2013. The Congress, which had given a remarkable show in the area in 2013, winning 13 seats, was reduced to a tally of three.

In the Bengaluru region, where 26 of the 28 seats went to polls, while the tally did not change much for parties between

2013 and 2018, the constituencies did. The BJP retained all its 11 seats won in 2013. The Congress won 13 seats, a gain of one. The JD(S) won two seats, down one seat from 2013.

Siddaramaiah’s AHINDA coalition, which had significantly helped the Congress come to power in the state in 2013, was reduced to tatters. The formation worked only as far as the Muslim and Kuruba voters were concerned. An analysis of exit poll data shows that large sections of Dalits and OBCs abandoned the Congress in favour of the BJP.

Among Muslims, who constitute 12.5 per cent of the population, an overwhelming majority—78 per cent—stood by the Congress while 11 per cent voted for the JD(S) and only 5 per cent for the BJP. Sixty per cent of the Kuruba vote went to the Congress, 27 per cent to the BJP and just 7 per cent to the JD(S).

Among Dalit voters, who constitute 16.2 per cent of the population, 40 per cent voted for the BJP, 37 per cent for the Congress and 18 per cent for the JD(S). More than half the OBC voters (52 per cent) voted for the BJP, 24 per cent for the Congress and 14 per cent for the JD(S). It was the same story with the tribal population, as 44 per cent voted for the BJP, 29 per cent for the Congress and 16 per cent for the JD(S).

Karnataka’s mandate of 2018 is an echo of the assembly elections of 2004 and 2008, when the BJP had emerged as the single largest party. Like in 2004, the Congress and JD(S) have cobbled together a post-poll coalition. While the governor decides whether to invite the single largest party or the post-poll coalition, in the tug-ofwar for power, what will perhaps matter more is covert attempts to muster support and less the political sociology and geography of this mandate for change.