THE MODI MARK

The Modi government has punched below its weight in the neighbourhood, but managed to reboot relations with China and Russia and ride the unpredictability of Donald Trump’s rise

When the Modi government came to power, it declared ‘Neighbourhood First’ as its foreign policy . ‘India and its neighbours,’ the BJP’s 2014 manifesto read, ‘have drifted apart. Instead of clarity, we have seen confusion.’ The party pledged to set this right, including “strengthening regional forums such as SAARC”. As a first step, the PM invited leaders of all SAARC countries, including Nawaz Sharif, for his swearing-in. He is, in a sense, the senior foreign minister, visiting 54 countries in four years, adding a personal touch to an outcomeoriented foreign policy.

But four years on, a lack of clarity still assails India’s neighbourhood policy. Relations with Pakistan have lurched from the PM’s surprise Lahore Christmas Day visit in 2015 to the bloodiest year in half a decade on the border last year. To be fair, the swings have been driven more by precarious civil-military ties in Pakistan, but Delhi’s muscular approach on the border has not paid off either. Nor have efforts to isolate Pakistan globally, which has deepened relations with China and Russia.

Then there is the challenge of halting China’s growing influence in India’s backyard. Modi’s May visit to Nepal aimed to repair deteriorating ties—starting with the ill-advised 2015 blockade. Relations with the Maldives nosedived this year. China, meanwhile, powered ahead with its Belt and Road Initiative. An India-Japan counter, the Asia Africa Growth Corridor, launched last May, has been slow to take off.

Where Modi deserves credit is in injecting some energy in India’s relations with major powers. He has pursued a closer strategic relationship with the US, a landmark logistics exchange agreement in 2016 giving mutual access to each other’s facilities. India has managed the Trump tsunami sans major incident, though the threat of a crackdown on H1-B visas looms.

Perhaps the biggest foreign policy challenge last year was the 72-day border standoff with China in Doklam. Delhi did manage to prevent a Chinese road in the most sensitive area only to have Beijing beef up its presence elsewhere.

Delhi in other ways has made the most of Trump-era global uncertainty, responding smartly to overtures by China and Russia. At the Wuhan and Sochi summits, “strategic autonomy” was the emphasis, signalled in India’s willingness to take forward the nearly Rs 40,000 crore deal for the S-400 Russian anti-missile defence system and rejecting Australia’s request to join the India-USJapan Malabar naval exercises.

Former foreign secretary Shyam Saran says the rapprochement with China may “give us breathing space” in the neighbourhood for now, with less opportunities for neighbours to play the China card. “But we have to try and recoup our losses,” he says.