MISSION 2019
As he enters his final year, the overall sense is that Narendra Modi is honest, hard-working and has delivered on many fronts. He is miles ahead of the Opposition for 2019, but many economic and social challenges remain, apart from the feeling of alienati
An assessment of four years of the Modi governent and what it portends for next year’s general election
On May 26, the day Narendra Damadordas Modi completed four years as the nation’s ‘Prime Sevak’, as he puts it, he let his senior cabinet and party colleagues brief the press in Lutyens’ Delhi about his government’s achievements. The prime minister instead chose to fly to Cuttack and address a BJP rally organised on the banks of the Mahanadi. Odisha was one of the few states that had remained unaffected by the Modi tidal wave in the 2014 general election. The Biju Janata Dal, headed by Naveen Patnaik, swept 20 of the 21 seats in the state, the BJP winning only one. It was characteristic of Modi that on a day when he could have basked in his glory in Delhi, he decided instead to take the battle headon in a state where his party is weak. He is acutely aware that the BJP needs to win many more seats in states like Odisha to offset any losses his party may suffer in its northern bastions in 2019. Those who know Modi well and have worked with him say that four years as head of the world’s most populous democracy have made him even more impatient to ensure outcomes. That he remains uncompromising towards failure. That you need to take whatever he says seriously because he means what he says and believes in practising what he preaches—a karma yogi. And that in anything that he does or takes up, he never looks at doing things for expediency, but always has a long term vision in mind. His sights are already fixed on 2022—when India completes 75 years of Independence—and beyond. Modi’s target may be to get re-elected in 2019. But by working on a vision that is well into a second term, he is streets ahead of the Opposition, which is struggling to put together a convincing enough positive narrative to defeat him.
Before setting the pace for his prime ministership, Modi did study how his predecessors governed and he has put to good use the lessons he learnt. He is aware that the fourth year of an Indian prime minister’s tenure has always proved critical in the campaign for re-election. By the end of his fourth year, Rajiv Gandhi, who had won a massive mandate of 404 seats in the 1984 general election, was tottering. The Bofors scam had taken its toll, his policy of sending Indian troops to Sri Lanka was floundering and a formidable opposition unity was building around V.P. Singh, his former defence minister. In the 1989 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress party was down to 197 seats and an Opposition coalition headed by Singh swept to power.
Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao, who headed a coalition government from 1991-96 and is credited with ushering in major economic reforms, also became politically shaky by the end of his fourth year. The fall of the Babri Masjid in 1992 severely damaged his credibility, he faced an internal revolt in the Congress, with many senior leaders, including Arjun Singh and N.D. Tiwari, leaving the party, and he was bogged down in allegations of corruption. The 1996 general election threw up a fractured verdict, with the Congress down to 140 seats and the BJP emerging as the single largest party with 161 seats. What followed was a succession of coalition governments.
In his first term, A.B. Vajpayee lasted for just 13 days and for a little more than a year in his second tenure in 1998-1999. It was only in his third term as prime minister that Vajpayee completed a full five-year tenure (1999-2004). In the fourth year of this term, he appeared well set to be re-elected after the BJP won the assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The fact that the economy was booming also lulled him into advancing the general election by six months riding on the ‘India Shining’ campaign. But the BJP didn’t seem to sense either the rural discontent or the disquiet among minorities. The RSS felt that Vajpayee had vyakti (personality) and vikas (development), but no vichardhara (ideology). The result was a shock defeat for Vajpayee and the Congressled UPA forming a government with Manmohan Singh as prime minister.
By the end of the fourth year of his first tenure, Manmohan had put in
place several key measures that would see him being re-elected in 2009. He endeared himself to the rural populace with the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS), and won over the middle class by keeping inflation down, maintaining economic growth and winning the vote of confidence for the Indo-US nuclear deal. The rise of regional parties also dented the votes for the BJP rather than the Congress in several states. In contrast, in the fourth year of his second term, Manmohan’s government was beset with charges of scams, a policy paralysis and the rise of Narendra Modi as a strong alternative to what was perceived as an effete UPA government. The Congress was already staring at defeat, its tally touching a nadir in the 2014 general election.
When Narendra Modi took over in May 2014, he was seen initially as less a visionary, more a doer. He announced a flurry of programmes which he launched with great fanfare. It would take a while to discern a method to this mad rush of schemes. But after flirting with big business, he soon realised the urban affluent had little influence in terms of vote banks. Instead, he took a leaf out of Indira Gandhi’s book and projected himself as a messiah of the poor. He focused on providing the bare necessities of living which, as he rightly said, successive governments had been unable to deliver despite six decades of Independence. So, for the poor and rural masses, he launched the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan to provide toilets for every household, the village and household electrification scheme (Saubhagya), free gas connections and the first cylinder free (Ujjwala scheme), the Indira Awaas Yojana to provide affordable housing and also roads to build connectivity. He also massively expanded NREGS, but ensured that the work they were engaged in built assets for the community around them. With the trinity of Jan Dhan, Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) and mobile connectivity, the Modi government also ensured the money went to the right beneficiary, curbed corruption and stemmed leakages of development funds. Many of these schemes leave a lot to be desired in terms of implementation but the impression is that Modi’s made an impact with his own brand of social reform.
On the economy front, the Modi government’s record has been mixed. Bolstered by low oil prices and the euphoria of a new proactive government, the economy recovered from the UPA-II slump and seemed to be cruising along. But back-to-back droughts saw agricultural growth plummet and farmers’ distress heighten. As the euphoria waned, big business felt Modi was only an incremental reformer, someone who was tall on promises but short on delivery. Undeterred, Modi went ahead with two bold economic measures—demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax. While the jury is still out on the benefits of
FOREIGN POLICY IS WHERE MODI’S TRULY EXCELLED, NAVIGATING SKILFULLY THROUGH GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY
demonetisation, it has certainly put a crimp on black money and bolstered Modi’s image as an anti-corruption crusader, though one of the BJP’s key constituencies—the traders—is most affected. While there are issues with the implementation of GST, there is little doubt that it is the biggest indirect tax reform in recent years and will have a salutary effect on the economy once the kinks are ironed out.
His government has also worked to resolve legacy issues like mounting non-performing assets (NPA) of public sector banks. After being slow on agricultural reform, he has made strides to sort out issues causing farmers distress through crop insurance schemes and promising higher minimum support prices. Yet, there is plenty of work left to do on the farm front. The issue of new job creation remains fuzzy, with an intense debate breaking out over the methodology of compiling and interpreting data on employment and wages.
The challenge of draining out the NPA quagmire remains as does stimulating private investment and halting the flight of capital. The recent rise in oil prices poses a fresh challenge. There are growing complaints of tax terrorism by income tax officials that he needs to heed. To his credit, there has been no major corruption scandals that have marred his record, though questions remain on why Nirav Modi and Vijay Mallya still roam free. But if Modi’s able to sustain the current upturn in GDP growth in his final year, then he can justifiably claim he has put the economy back on a high-growth track when he hits the campaign trail for 2019.
Where Modi has truly excelled is in his conduct of foreign policy. Despite his lack of experience before he took over, he proved to be a natural. He was willing to shed the baggage of the past and has always batted on the front foot while working his way successfully through the minefield of global uncertainty. His ‘neighbourhood first’ policy faltered for a while, especially with Pakistan, Nepal and China, but is now back on track. His cosying up to West Asian and Central Asian countries, both for India’s energy needs as well as to nullify Pakistan’s clout among Muslim nations, is paying dividends. So is his Act East policy and Africa outreach. He has engaged with major powers, whether the US, Russia, Japan or Europe, pushing India’s national interests hard, particularly on trade and strategic issues. Internationally, he has raised India’s standing with his unique policy of being, as an official put it, “non-aligned by being aligned with everyone”.
Modi’s success is also his biggest drawback. He remains a one-man army. There are also two fronts his government falls short on: lack of reforms in the social sector and a sense of alienation among the minorities. On sectors such as health and education, his ministers have been inexplicably slow in bringing reforms or even swinging the kind of fund allocations needed to make the difference. Only in this year’s budget have provisions been made for what the government touts as the world’s largest health insurance scheme that would ease the burden of rising health costs on India’s poor and middle class. Meanwhile, higher education reforms remain on the backburner and Modi’s Skill India programme hasn’t taken off as yet.
Where the Modi government and the BJP haven’t come out looking good is in their divisive agenda when it comes to dealing with minorities, particularly Muslims. Perhaps it is not to repeat Vajpayee’s mistake of not furthering RSS vichardhara. The perception remains that the prime minister has not cracked down enough on those committing atrocities against Muslims and Dalits.
Yet, the overall sense is that the prime minister is hard-working, honest, sincere and has delivered on many fronts. That image sits well with the BJP’s new slogan for 2019: “Saaf Niyat, Sahi Vikas” (Good intent, right development). As he had demonstrated in Gujarat, where he served for 13 years, Modi, as prime minister, is clearly a long-distance runner—a marathon man. This is what gives him a decisive advantage.
American athlete Joan Benoit Samuelson, who won the gold when the marathon was first introduced for women in the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics, had a set of rules to run the 26.2 mile race that Modi seems to follow with great success. Her first rule: “Do it for yourself. You can’t run anyone else’s race but your own. It’s your journey, your experience, your story. Go out and tell it.” Modi does all this better than any other Indian political leader does. Samuelson’s second principle: “Stay present and focus on your goals. The marathon doesn’t end until you cross the finish line.” Modi is acutely aware of this and has focused on ensuring last-mile delivery in all the major schemes he has introduced. Even in the recent Karnataka and Gujarat assembly elections, his campaign blitz in the final week made the difference for his party. And her third maxim: “Never give up. Just stay strong. Believe in yourself, believe in your training and believe in your heart. The huge crowd will carry you to the finish line.” Modi’s staying power, backed by a doting public, has put him miles ahead of the Opposition and in pole position for the 2019 race.
DRAINING OUT THE NPA QUAGMIRE IS STILL A CHALLENGE AS IS STIMULATING PRIVATE INVESTMENT