AIADMK ON THE EDGE
Dwindling membership and rebel MLAs have the ruling party worried
E.K. Palanisamy (EPS) fervently hopes legislators on the verge of drifting from the ruling AIADMK will view the party’s ‘two leaves’ poll symbol as an asset not to be frittered away. For good measure, whenever he is in public, the Tamil Nadu chief minister is seen flashing a two-finger wave at people, in an apparent invocation of the party’s popular symbol.
Here’s why. T.T.V. Dhinakaran, who launched the breakaway Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam and claims the support of 18 rebel AIADMK legislators—who were disqualified after switching sides—has reduced the ruling group’s majority to a cliffhanger. They now have just 117 members, including speaker P. Dhanapal, in a house of 234. The ruling EPS-OPS (O. Paneerselvam) group could lose its majority if the rebels join the opposition DMK-CongressIUML alliance, which has 98 members.
The split verdict by the Madras High Court division bench on June 14 is only a temporary reprieve for the government. A third judge is shortly expected to review Dhanapal’s decision to disqualify the 18 MLAs. Had the two division bench judges upheld the disqualification, it would have forced bypolls in 18 seats. Had they struck down the speaker’s order and Dhanapal allowed them to return, the rebels could have teamed up with the opposition to bring down the government. P. Vetrivel, one of the MLAs, has petitioned the Supreme Court to hear the matter directly.
Dhinakaran is determined to get one of the petitioners in the high court to withdraw his petition to force bypolls in his own Andipatti constituency. This, he believes, would embarrass the ruling group as well as justify his own claim as the most eligible successor to Jayalalithaa’s legacy. Worried, the ruling AIADMK group is trying hard to woo the rebels. Fisheries minister D. Jayakumar says while it is up to the party to re-admit the ‘disqualified’ rebels, Dhinakaran and his aides will find no place in the ruling party.
Amid all this comes the challenge from actors-turned-politicians Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan. Both have a big following on social media, to counter which the AIADMK is trying to ramp up its presence on Twitter (just 2,000 followers at present). AIADMK mouthpiece Nammadhu Amma, on June 20, appealed to party members to enlist at least five others to join Twitter, take a screenshot of the account and post it tagging 10 others. “We are doing this to propagate welfare schemes as well as counter the propaganda against us,” says G. Ramachandran, head of the party’s IT wing.
After Amma’s demise, the AIADMK, which once boasted 15 million registered members, is looking for new ways to woo people. Barely half that number have renewed their pledge in the special membership drive that concludes on June 30.