COALITION COURSE
A united Opposition may deny the BJP a majority in 2019, but it will need to pull out all the stops to take on Narendra Modi, who still towers over the political landscape
With the survey finding the BJP missing the majority mark, PM Modi must fall back on allies to win 2019
EVERY PRIME MINISTER WHO HAS stood on the ramparts of the Red Fort on Independence Day and unfurled the tricolour, as cannons boom and the band strikes up the national anthem, must have felt the gravity of the moment. Both as a symbol of free India as also the tremendous burden of expectations it enfolds. So must have Narendra Modi as he readied to address the nation for the fifth time from the 378-year-old Mughal-era monument. It must be both addictive and sobering to have the attention of the nation’s 1.3 billion people—the perks of power— and know that the actions you take will in some way impact their individual trysts with destiny.
On August 15, 2014, when Modi delivered his first address as prime minister, he portrayed himself as the outsider, who had received the mandate to transform the country, end the policy paralysis of the previous government and revive the flagging economy. He announced a host of innovative programmes, including his signature Swachh Bharat Abhiyan. Four years later, in 2018, Modi has become very much the insider and was in supreme command as he spoke with oratorical flourish about his government’s accomplishments in every sector and for every section of the people, whether the poor, the backward, farmers, the middle class, businessmen or young and women. The prime minister’s big pitch: my government has delivered.
Aware that this will be the last occasion he’ll get to address the nation before the general election scheduled in May 2019, Modi used the platform to officially launch his re-election campaign. He painted a vision of a new India and a new era of development where there would be “housing for all, power for all, water for all, LPG for all, toilets for all, skills for all, health for all, insurance for all and connectivity for all”. In doing so, he set an agenda that will not only have a broadbased appeal across the country but also one that his opponents would find hard to match. So Modi’s other big message: I have the vision, mission and passion that goes beyond 2019—vote for me again.
Modi’s Naya India
Modi backers are certain that it won’t be his last Independence Day address and that a second term is a shoo-in for him. However, the results of the biannual India Today Group-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation (MOTN) opinion poll should shake that confidence. The poll casts a shadow over the chances of Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning a majority of the Lok Sabha seats in 2019 as they did in the 2014 general election. The latest in the series of MOTN polls, conducted in July, reveals that the comfortable lead of 298 seats the BJP enjoyed in the July 2017 poll has dwindled to 245—27 short of the 272 needed for a majority on its own. The poll also
indicates that, along with its allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the BJP will just about retain power with a tally of 281 seats, making the party vulnerable to the pulls and pressures of coalition partners.
Even more worrying for the BJP is a scenario the poll considers, in which the opposition gets its act together and forms a mahagathbandhan consisting mainly of the Congress, the Trinamool Congress, the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Janata Dal (Secular). If that happens, such a coalition could win as many as 224 seats and share the honours with the NDA whose tally will be down to 228 seats, making it a hung Parliament. The BJP’s own tally would drop to 194 seats and though it will still be the single-largest party, it will be heavily dependent on its allies and breakaway parties to form a government. Modi’s credibility as BJP’s prime vote-catcher would get severely dented in such a case and cast doubts over his acceptability as prime minister by the NDA allies. Modi himself may not be inclined to rule a gaggle of parties as
he may balk at running a coalition where his writ would not run unchallenged as it does now. There is a third scenario that the poll considers, in which the AIADMK and YSR Congress join the NDA. However, even if that happens, the NDA coalition will still fall short of a majority (see accompanying story: A Clash of Coalitions).
So, despite all the professed achievements of his government, why are the voters surveyed in this MOTN sceptical and unwilling to give Modi and the BJP a full majority? For one, the level of those satisfied with the government’s performance, though still high, has steadily dropped—from its peak of 71 per cent in the January 2017 MOTN to around 56 per cent now. Encouragingly for Modi, he is still regarded as the best leader by far to be prime minister, with a rating of 49 per cent—good by any standards in the fourth year of his term. But he is not as wildly popular as a year-and-a-half ago when his ratings stood at 65 per cent. What may also be disconcerting for BJP supporters is that the survey shows that Rahul Gandhi’s popularity is on the rise again, with his rating moving up from a low of 10 per cent in the January 2017 MOTN to 27 per cent this time. The gap between Modi and him is still a large 22 percentage points, but it indicates that Rahul, as Congress president, is emerging as a challenger.
The other reason is that every prime minister must deliver on three fundamental issues that every MOTN puts on top of the list of concerns: jobs, price rise and curbing corruption. Our latest poll shows that curbing corruption is still perceived as Modi’s single biggest achievement—with the crackdown on black money, reduction in corruption within the government and demonetisation together totalling 44 per cent. While he gets a pat on the back for introducing GST, Swachh Bharat and infrastructure development programmes, a host of other NDA government schemes, including the much-touted Jan Dhan Yojana, Digital India and Direct Benefit Transfers, receive a lukewarm response. On controlling inflation, the poll shows that there is growing trouble for him from the perception that price rise is beginning to cross danger levels.
His tough job on jobs
The prime minister’s real cause for worry is the lack of jobs. The percentage of people who believe that the paucity of jobs is the Modi government’s single biggest failure has gone up from 22 per cent in the January 2018 to 29 per cent in the
latest edition. This, despite repeated clarifications from the PM that statistics don’t reflect the reality as Employment Provident Fund registers show a dramatic increase, and sectors such as tourism, construction and aviation, which are employment-friendly, have experienced high growth rates in the past four years. The demonetisation drive seems to have boomeranged, with the survey showing that people feel it hit the informal sector hard. There is also a growing number of people who have stopped believing in Modi’s ability to deliver his campaign promise of ‘achhe din’—from 24 per cent in January 2017 to 43 per cent now.
While his overall ratings may have slid, there is much praise in the MOTN for the way Modi has delivered on development issues, such as providing drinking water and electricity, improving road and rail connectivity, apart from his handling of the foreign policy. Modi also has a lot going for him in the upcoming general election. Despite the 2019 election being only eight months away, the opposition is still to form a convincing coalition, or even
build a powerful counter-narrative to challenge Modi. Barring an anti-Modi tirade, they have no alternative, overarching vision of how they propose to take the country forward compared to what the BJP government is doing. People are unlikely to forget easily the UPA’s somnambulant performance in its final years, undoing all the achievements of its two terms. Despite the rise of Rahul Gandhi, Modi still towers over the political landscape. Most importantly for Modi, while the opposition may have the arithmetic, he has the chemistry with the masses that enables him to reach out directly to them and garner support. The recent state polls in Gujarat and even in Karnataka showed that it was the Modi factor that provided BJP the push.
The Modi way
While Modi has, to his credit, pushed up the economic growth rate to an average 7.5 per cent, he is aware that it needs to hit double digits to meet the people’s needs, particularly on the jobs front. What hasn’t helped is the twin balance-sheet problems that have left public sector banks with crippling non-performing assets and led to a credit squeeze. With private investment stagnant, exports falling and automation expanding, the manufacturing sector is not able to deliver the number of jobs it did in the previous decade. Worse, agriculture remains in a constant crisis, and the MOTN survey confirms the deep distress of the farmers. It has also exacerbated the jobs crisis, particularly among the poorest of the poor.
Running India is, without doubt, one of the toughest jobs in the world. Modi’s job has been made even tougher by the volatile international situation. He has to con-
stantly protect India’s interests that are affected by US President Donald Trump’s disruptive decisions and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s vaulting ambitions.
The Indian voters are aware that it will require a mature, hard-working, sincere and tough prime minister to handle these troubled times. Modi remains the best qualified for the job. And his personal integrity has never come into question. His Olympian-like motto of striving faster, higher and stronger sets him apart from the pack. Those who work with him talk in awe of his ability to connect the dots with the various programmes he has initiated and take them to the next level. He personally monitors the progress of these schemes, is unhappy with the pace of change and is constantly shifting goal posts to ensure lastmile delivery. His commitment to vikas (development) has been unwavering ever since he took charge and he is clear on the targets that need to be achieved.
Heed the lessons
Modi has so far focused on ensuring the basics of development, which is good. But he is acutely aware that if India has to join the rank of developed nations and aspire for greatness, there has to be a phenomenal economic transformation. An aide of his likens it to an aircraft breaking the sound barrier, and Modi is impatient to set into motion the processes that would ensure a quantum leap in technology, skills, marketing, transparency, speed and honesty. In his Independence Day speech, he talked of modernising agriculture from beej to bazaar, providing value addition and making the sector more export-oriented. These lofty ideals, though, need to be tested in the fire of reality.
The MOTN holds a larger message for Modi: to be more inclusive, especially of his allies, for he may need them when push comes to shove. Concerns remain about his government’s handling of internal security issues such as caste conflicts and the spate of mob lynchings in the name of cow protection. Modi addressed some of these concerns in his speech, saying that his government will come down hard on those who violate the rule of law.
The prime minister should also heed the lesson from Rudyard Kipling’s Jungle Book, where Mowgli and all the creatures that live there reiterate: “This is the law of the jungle, as old and as true as the sky; And the wolf that shall keep it may prosper, but the wolf that shall break it must die. As the creeper that girdles the tree trunk, the law runneth forward and back; for the strength of the pack is the wolf, and the strength of the wolf is the pack.” Modi remains the lion in India’s political jungle, but he must learn to adapt to ground realities to keep his party, government and the country strong and united.